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Expectations weigh heavily on Rockies

But to call 2007 season a fluke is too harsh

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David Zalubowski / AP
Jeff Francis won 17 games last season, but is winless so far in 2008.
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ASK THE BASEBALL EXPERT
By Tony DeMarco
NBCSports.com contributor
updated 9:06 p.m. ET May 8, 2008

Tony DeMarco
As the Colorado Rockies' struggles mount, so does the feeling that their unexpected 2007 pennant was more the product of a fortuitous late-season streak than anything else. Or, to use another nasty F-word, a fluke.

But that concept is mostly a misguided one. Little good has unfolded in the first six weeks of the Rockies' title defense — more on that in a minute — but that shouldn't take away from what went on in 2007, when the fruition of a long and painful rebuilding process breathed life back into a moribund franchise.

Yes, there was a healthy dose of good fortune along the way in the form of balls finding holes and one well-timed miscall at home plate. But let's break down the Rockies' historic 21-of-22 run for what it was:

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A sustained period of tremendous baseball played by a hot team with nothing to lose. They pitched, they hit, they caught everything in sight. There was a winning streak of 11 games, including seven against a dead-in-the-water Dodgers team. Then a loss, then two more regular-season wins before the instant-classic of a play-in game against the choking San Diego Padres and their injured closer.

So to get to the play-in game, the Rockies won 13 of 14 — not something that happens very often down the stretch — but also not really that much different than an 11-3/12-2 run that every good team goes on at some point in a 90-win season. The play-in victory and the two postseason sweeps on the way to the NL pennant was where the team-of-destiny, on-a-roll stuff really kicked in — until that eight-day layoff before the World Series, that is.

And lost in all of it was the fact that the Rockies went 72-46 from May 22nd on — the best record in the National League over the final four-plus months. Even before the 13 of 14 wins to close the regular season, the Rockies were 59-45, a very solid .560 winning percentage.

They had a could-have-been MVP in Matt Holliday, and should-have-been Rookie of the Year and Gold Glove award-winner in Troy Tulowitzki. They had the league's best team ERA in the second half, and a 17-game winner in Jeff Francis. They posted a major-league-record fielding percentage.

So what's different now?

Number one is the burden of expectation — something with which they clearly are struggling. You see it in hitters pressing in key situations, leading to a dismal team batting average with runners in scoring position. You see it in Francis still winless at this point, as he draws opposing ace after opposing ace in his match-ups. You see it in the inconsistencies of talented, but still largely unproven Manuel Corpas and Ubaldo Jimenez, and even less-proven Franklin Morales, who already is back in Triple-A.

And what you don't see is Tulowitzki, out until at least the All-Star break with a torn quadriceps tendon, a critical loss to say the least. So if this season is to be salvaged, that long winning streak needs to come sooner than later.

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What you have here is another defending champion dealing with the inexorable reality that it's harder the second time. Just ask the 2007 Tigers and Cardinals. Or the 2006 White Sox and Astros.

Going back further this decade, the Diamondbacks had to tear down and rebuild. The Angels have won one playoff game since their 2002 title. And we all know the shameful ownership operations in Florida before and since the Marlins' 2003 title.

Winning a pennant is no small accomplishment; following it up in this age of parity takes the built-in advantage of a massive payroll that only the Yankees and Red Sox enjoy.

But 'fluke' is too strong a word to hang on the Rockies' pennant, no matter how much they may continue to struggle this season.


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