Mike Brunker Horse racing editor • Profile • E-mail

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - The question confronting handicappers in the 134^th Kentucky Derby on Saturday is seemingly simple: Can talent trump inexperience?

The talent in question belongs to Big Brown, and it is the rawest kind. A 3-year-old colt that has yet to encounter a serious challenge in three lifetime starts, Big Brown is considered by many at the racetrack to be a “freak,” meaning that he is a young, inexperienced horse that can do things that a young, inexperienced horse should not be able to do.

But inexperience has historically been the kiss of death in the Derby. The last horse to win the Run for the Roses after making three or fewer lifetime starts was the great filly Regret, who accomplished the feat in 1915. Added to the challenge is the fact that Big Brown will start from the difficult 20 post, which means he risks getting caught wide on the first turn and losing valuable ground.

Though I believe that Big Brown is the most talented athlete in the Derby field, those two factors are enough to get me to look elsewhere. After spending anguished hours debating the merits of the other 19 runners — both internally and with press box colleagues — I’m throwing my lot in with a colt who will go off at much more generous odds: Denis of Cork.

It’s not a pick I make with a great deal of confidence, since Denis of Cork is the second-least experienced horse in the field, with just four starts under his girth.

But the son of Harlan’s Holiday, who finished 6^th as the lukewarm 6-1 favorite in the 2002 Derby, has a number of  positives going for him: His closing running style should play well in a race that figures to have a demanding early pace; he has shown an affinity for dirt tracks, including the Churchill Downs oval; he will be ridden by last year’s Derby winning jockey, Calvin Borel;  he showed tremendous potential this spring; and he’s listed at 27-1, compared to 7-2 for Big Brown.

The generous odds are available because the David Carroll-trained colt experienced adversity for the first time in his last start — the Illinois Derby (Gr. 2) at Hawthorne Race Course on April 5. In that race Denis of Cork never unleashed his trademark late run and finished fifth, 8½ lengths behind winner Recapturetheglory.

Carroll said after the race that he had no idea why Denis of Cork ran so poorly in the race and that he was tossing it out, or disregarding it.

I’m willing to do the same, based on the fact that the Hawthorne racing surface is a quirky one and appeared to favor speed that day, as it often does, at the expense of closers like Denis of Cork.

Denis of Cork’s lack of experience is a cause for concern in the Derby, which will have a full field of 20 horses. Horses that have had just four starts prior to the Run for the Roses are just 2-for-27 since 1900, and none has done so since Exterminator shocked the crowd with a 29-1 upset in 1918.

But at least if I’m bucking history, I’m getting fair odds for doing so.

Denis of Cork almost didn’t make the Derby field because his Illinois Derby was so poor that it left him short of the graded stakes earnings needed to get in. Only after the Coolmore Lexington winner Behindatthebar was withdrawn last week did he sneak into the starting lineup.

The colt also has been flying under the radar of public handicappers, even those who were singing his praises just a few short months ago when he won the Southwest Stakes (Gr. 3) at Oaklawn Park with an impressive burst of speed in the stretch in his first start against stakes foes.

For Denis of Cork to succeed in the Derby, he will need some help in the early stages of Saturday’s 134^th Run for the Roses.

MORE FROM HORSE RACING

Horse racing Section Front

Pure Clan wins American Oaks at Hollywood Mistrial in diet drug fraud case Horse racing on the verge of irrelevance Vote: When will we see next Triple Crown winner? Interactive: Triple Crown winners, near misses Latest horse racing videos   Sound off on horse racing message boards Equibase: Top horses, by earnings Equibase: Results ticker from top tracks MORE ON HORSE RACING Horse racing Section Front   Add Horse racing headlines to your news reader: