Wednesday’s post position draw placing most of the horses with sharp early speed in the outside gates --  including Bob Black Jack (post 13), Recapturetheglory (18) Gayego (19) and Big Brown (20) – increases the odds that he’ll get it.

The riders of those horses would normally be expected to be focused exclusively on getting their mounts close to the rail before they reach the first turn. In this case, though, they also figure to be acutely aware that Big Brown is parked on their outside and simultaneously be trying to make him take as wide a route as possible.

That puts Big Brown’s rider, Kent Desormeaux, in a tough spot. Does he gun the Florida Derby winner early to try and outrun those horses or does he bide his time and let one of the horses to his inside dictate the early pace? I think he’ll do the latter, with Bob Black Jack most likely to handle pace-setting duties. 

If he does opt for the patient approach, that will create a new dilemma for the two-time Derby-winning rider:  He’ll either have to lose ground on the turn or risk tucking Big Brown in behind the leaders so he can move closer to the rail. That would be a tremendous gamble, as Big Brown has never had dirt kicked in his face in his brief racing career and there is no telling how he would react. 

I think that leaves him no choice but to accept the ground loss and hope that his mount is talented enough to overcome the yards lost to his rivals.

Denis of Cork, meantime, should be back near the back of the pack, and much closer to the fence under jockey Borel, known as “Bo-Rail” to Churchill Downs fans for his predilection for ground-saving rides.

Desormeaux  should take advantage of Big Brown’s high cruising speed to make an early move to the front, probably by the time the field reaches the far turn, in hopes of giving his horse a respite before the real running begins.

But the riders of the pressers and midpack runners like Adriano, Cool Coal Man, the filly Eight Belles, Tale of Ekati and Smooth Air aren’t likely to let the favorite catch his breath.  They should be moving up to engage the leader at that time as the late closers like Denis of Cork, Pyro, Colonel John,  Court Vision and Visionaire begin to make up serious ground from the rear.

No one knows how Big Brown will react if he’s hooked in the late stages of a race, as it has yet to occur. But whether he successfully fights off the first challenge or succumbs to it, he is unlikely to have enough energy left after his early exertions to withstand the second wave coming from farther back.

In my mind’s eye, I see Denis of Cork and Pyro roaring past the tiring favorite with in midstretch and fighting it out to the wire, with the former benefitting from Borel’s heady ride to prevail by a half length.

Big Brown fails to hit the board as Smooth Air gets past him late to complete the trifecta.

Slide show   Week in Sports Pictures Flying on the hardwood, racing on the rink, getting physical on the gridiron, and much more. more photos

To try to cash in on my vision, here’s how I will bet the race:

I’ll  put $20 to win on Denis of Cork and box him in $2 exactas with a bunch of horses:  Colonel John, Court Vision, Eight Belles, Monba, Pyro, Smooth Air, Tale of Ekati and Visionaire.

I’m also going to  take a flyer based on a bit of historical research I did for this race.

In Regret’s amazing Derby victory in 1915, when she coasted to victory in her first race back after a long layoff, runner-up, Pebbles, was ridden by “C. Borel.”  So in the event that Big Brown proves me wrong and become the first horse to win the Derby off just three starts since Regret, I’ll protect myself by betting a $5 exacta box with Denis of Cork.

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