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Applying 'American Idol' to the Derby

Zast channels Cowell in assessing talent of Run for the Roses field

Image: Simon CowellAP
"American Idol" judge Simon Cowell is not impressed.

A blessing for music lovers
If the Blue Grass served to prove anything, it’s that Cool Coal Man, Visionaire and Big Truck don’t have what it takes to compete at this level. You can lump these has-beens with Recapturetheglory and the other horses that ran in the Illinois Derby. This is a blessing for music lovers everywhere, because when co-owner Ronnie Lemarque sings, audiences run for the exits.

Adriano’s last prep was in the Lane’s End and the only thing worth noting about his triumph is that Edgar Prado has chosen to ride him over Monba and Tale of Ekati. 

Tale of Ekati, the Wood winner, will be an overlay. New Yorkers compare him to Funny Cide because Barclay Tagg trains him.  But I don’t believe he’s ever going to thrill Louisville crowds the way the 2003 Derby winner did. Actually, Tale of Ekati’s races are as slow as Wagnerian operas.

Court Vision was dreadful again in the Wood Memorial. That race at Aqueduct was like a karaoke night on which the amateurs had laryngitis.

With no blinding speed to run at, Court Vision, one of only three Dual Qualifiers in the Derby, looked to be stuck in molasses in the Wood. Yet, believe it or not, I think he could become something of a “wise guy’s” selection.  A stakes winner at Churchill last fall, the Remsen Stakes winner at Aqueduct is gaining favor after a bullet workout in blinkers on the Churchill Downs surface. But for my money, I’ll take a California-based horse.

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Image:
  The Week in Sports Pictures
A kayaker flips out, a racehorse eyes the Triple Crown and more.

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Gayego, the Arkansas Derby winner, leaves you feeling like you’ve just had a Chinese dinner. It’s all delicious going down. But an hour after it’s over, you feel like you haven’t eaten. He beat Z Fortune, who is bred for the distance but seems to come up short when it counts.  If Z Fortune didn’t have a name that reminds me of what Zsa Zsa Gabor called the money under her mattress, I might like him.

Colonel John is a completely different story. Each time he races, he comes up with a sensational performance. That’s the definition of a star – consistency.  Colonel John has now won three of four stakes, all on synthetic surfaces. Like Gayego, he will have no trouble transferring his Santa Anita form to Churchill Downs dirt. And unlike Gayego, he can last until the end. 

I think Colonel John is the whole package.  He’s the one to beat in this competition.

© 2012 NBC Sports.com  Reprints


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INTERACTIVE
AFFIRMED ALYDAR CAUTHEN VALASQUEZ
Timeline: The Kentucky Derby
The defining moments in more than a century of the Run for the Roses.
INTERACTIVE
SECRETARIAT TURCOTTE
Triple Crown winners
The horses that have won the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont in the same year.