Vic Zast

Memo to: Kentucky Derby Fans

From:  Simon Cowell, judge on ‘American Idol’

Subject: Critique of the Kentucky Derby Candidates

Dear Horseplayers:

I’m an expert on assessing talent, and, quite frankly, there isn’t much of it in this year’s Kentucky Derby.  No contender approaches David Cook in charisma or David Archuleta in talent, but that’s the way it goes – sometimes you’re dealt a Taylor Hicks or Ruben Studdard.

Oh, sure, I may not know a Green Monkey from a Curlin. But picking winners is about feeling your way through the process. The Derby Trail is as loaded with just as many pitfalls and upstarts as "American Idol," and I’m pretty good at spotting them. So what’s the big deal about a horse race? You either have it, or you don’t. And I know which horse has it.

My jealous colleagues, Paula and Randy, have me pegged as a know-it-all know-nothing. But knowing nothing can be a good thing in my line of work, and I’m sure it’s the same for betting horses. One thing for sure, I can set a morning line better than Mike Battaglia, the NBC Sports analyst and official Kentucky Derby odds-maker. So, here goes.

Look, Big Brown is a nice horse, but he’s not James Brown. “The Godfather of Soul” was “the hardest working man in show business,” and the grandson of Danzig is a couch potato.  No horse has won the Kentucky Derby on only three starts since 1915. Now does anyone really think that a history like this can be beat?

You’ve got to take chances to win, and trainer Dick Dutrow Jr. has the moxie to go where others fear to tread.  But let’s face it, what else are you going to do when your owners are breathing down your neck and the fragrance of roses takes hold of their noses?  You soak your horse’s sore feet in Jack Daniel’s and pray that his therapeutic shoes don’t come unglued. Then you hope that he – the front runner in this race – keeps on running.

As a matter of fact, I actually believe Big Brown’s Florida Derby victory was the best performance of the spring. Even Olympic sprinters can't dash to the lead from the far outside post in a 1 1/8 mile race at Gulfstream. Yet, Big Brown shot to the front immediately, and finished off his opposition like a virtuoso. Bravo!

Like a Sanjaya-William Hung duet
Now, here’s my opinion of the horses from the Blue Grass Stakes. Watching Monba and Cowboy Cal finish one-two was like listening to Sanjaya and William Hung sing a duet.  Both horses hit their high notes, but neither has a true falsetto. There is nothing telling about a Kentucky Derby prep race on Polytrack, especially one in which the favorites are flounders.  Even trainer Todd Pletcher cringed a bit in embarrassment by that ending.

Before the Blue Grass, I was certain that the four-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer would be watching the Run for the Roses on television instead of at the track.  Suddenly, the dour horseman with the Jerry Lee Lewis haircut has a whole lotta’ shakin’ goin’ on.  He’ll be trying to end his 0 for 19 Kentucky Derby losing streak with two last-minute qualifiers.

The Blue Grass Stakes was a good example of what can happen if you don’t stay focused in these competitions.  Steve Asmussen should have run Pyro on conventional dirt in the Arkansas Derby instead of on the Polytrack in Kentucky. Asmussen chose the wrong song and the horse, who once seemed invincible, now must do all he can to dispel the doubts lingering around him.  He may be in trouble. 

To me, Pyro is 2008’s Lawyer Ron, who ran 12^th in 2006 after dominating fields earlier that spring. He was great when the others hadn’t found their groove yet, but now that they have, he may get voted off. My advice is to stick with what you’re good at. Bluegrass isn’t Pyro’s style. I think zydeco is.

After winning the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby in New Orleans with ease, Pyro became the Kentucky Derby futures book favorite in mid-March.  He then fell from his top placing with that clunker at Keeneland. Are the special shoes that he wears a sign of foot trouble? On the other hand, he looked the part of a rock star when rehearsing last week at Churchill.

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