Derby ‘not a tough horse race’? Whoa, fellah!

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New challenges for Big Brown
And even if Big Brown is heads and shoulders above the competition — as he may well be — a perfect trip is a rarity in the crowded Derby field. What will the colt do if he’s bumped hard in the first few strides out of the gate and finds himself being pelted with fist-sized clods of dirt for the first time in his abbreviated career?

Also, we have yet to see how Big Brown reacts to the sort of stiff challenge he is almost certain to get at some point in Saturday’s race. Will he collapse like a cheap lawn chair when a competitor looks him in the eye at the top of the stretch?

Even Dutrow, with all the faith he has in the physical talents of his charge, can’t know the answer to these questions.

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And if he or anyone else intimates that they do prior before about 6:06 p.m. ET on Saturday, you have my permission to loudly tell them they don’t know what they’re talking about.

Readers weigh in with trifecta picks
Last week I asked readers to weigh in with their Derby trifectas, and promised some sort of NBCSports.com paraphernalia to anyone who could pick the actual top three finishers in order.

While I may be having trouble getting a grip on the race, many of you have crystal clear views of how the race will unfold. Here are just a few of the responses:

Shannon Knight of Cadiz, Ky., offers this prescription: “Box Z Fortune, Monba and Gayego and get a good night’s rest.”

Joseph Davis of Yuma, Ariz., sees an upset in the cards: “Friends ask who I like in the Derby, I respond: 'It's going to be one of those Giacomo years.' Mike Smith was on board Giacomo in 2005 and he is on Gayego this year. Sure is a lame angle for picking the winner, but then again, so was picking Giacomo; 2. Tale of Ekati -- Won first maiden race and ran nothing but graded stakes races since. Is battle tested and has the bloodlines; 3. Big Truck -- "’And it’s Big Truck roaring down the stretch to take third!’ That just sounds exciting.”

Charlene Shaw of Slippery Rock, Pa., offers Colonel John, Smooth Air and Adriano.

And Doug Lewis, no hometown given, offers up a long-shot players’ dream: Adriano, Big Truck and Monba.

Some fans went even deeper.

John Nicoletti of Naples, Fla., sends in an entire wagering menu: “Key Big Brown with Colonel John, Big Truck, Pyro,and Monba. Trifecta box: Big Brown, Colonel John, Monba, Exacta box: Big Brown, Big Truck, Colonel John. Straight bet: Big Brown across the board.”

Lunajoey also handed out a superfecta: “As crazy as it sounds, this year is a mismatch. Big Brown will win the Derby with ease and horses from the Pletcher barn will complete the trifecta, with Colonel John closing for fourth.”

Since this is the last Hoofbeat column before the Derby, I want to thank everyone who generously shared your thoughts over the past few months. We’ll breathe new life into the forum in the weeks before the Preakness.

In the meantime, God's speed to all the horses and riders on Saturday and may all your trifectas be winners.

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