With another Kentucky Derby prep at Keeneland — the Coolmore Lexington Stakes — producing results that some handicappers consider random, the ranting about artificial racing surfaces is quickly building to a crescendo. My advice as you ponder your picks for the Run for the Roses: Pop in some earplugs until the shrieking subsides and ignore those who say the new footings will put an end to rational handicapping.

Behindatthebar was the fourth choice in the wagering in Saturday’s Coolmore Lexington, the last major prep for the Kentucky Derby, but listening to critics of Keeneland’s Polytrack surface you could be forgiven if you thought he paid $113.60 instead of the $13.60 he actually returned to his backers.

New York Daily News sportswriter Jerry Bossert gets the award for taking the bashing to new levels on Sunday, when he called the installation of the new artificial surfaces “an overreaction by the racing industry because of Barbaro.”  He saved his most savage criticism for Keeneland, saying that the racing there is “too inconsistent and the results are sometimes so baffling, you might as well play your favorite numbers,” and blamed the Polytrack vagaries for a 17 percent decline in handle at the Lexington, Ky. oval.

A week earlier, Andy Beyer, the Washington Post’s racing guru emeritus, wailed over the “the installation of synthetic surfaces at the sites of significant 3-year-old stakes — Santa Anita, Turfway Park and particularly Keeneland,” which he said had “made rational handicapping judgments almost impossible. “

While I, too, have been left scratching my head after many races run on artificial surfaces, I think the argument that they have turned rational handicapping into a pointless exercise is just a wee bit overstated.

The artificial surfaces undoubtedly have added a new layer of complexity to the handicapping equation, but careful observation of racing at those tracks and good record-keeping on how shippers fare as they come and go should soon begin to fill the information void that currently exists.

One small step for horseplayerkind
One of the saner voices on the artificial surfaces has been the blogger Railbird, aka Jessica Chappel, who recently took one small step for horseplayerkind with just a bit of “breakfast research.” Studying the 460 nominees to the Triple Crown this year, she found that 61 had switched from a synthetic surface to a fast dirt track at some point in their careers. Of those, 47 improved or replicated their synthetic form on dirt.  She also posted this spreadsheet detailing the results.

That hardly sounds like the chaos theory in action, does it?

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Of course, that’s only half of the equation, as horses who ship from dirt to artificial surfaces seem more prone to running horribly, as Pyro, Cool Coal Man and Big Truck all did in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 12. But I have no doubt that as more data becomes available on horses switching from dirt to Polytrack (in use at Del Mar, Keeneland and Turfway Park) , or Cushion Track (in use at Santa Anita and Hollywood Park) to Polytrack, or Polytrack to Tapeta Footings (in use at Golden Gate Fields), or any other possible variation, what now seems unfathomable will begin to make more sense.

Going to all that work is going to be hard, no doubt about it. But considering that the early evidence supports the argument that the artificial surfaces are far safer for the horses who run for our enjoyment, let me echo the words of racing scribe Ellis Starr: “Get over it!”

Look for the long-toothed riders
Last week I asked readers to send me their thoughts on what they look for in a Derby jockey, and those who did were in agreement that they want a rider with experience in the “fastest two minutes in sports.”

“Experience is paramount,” wrote Nelson F. Grimes of West Bloomfield, Miss. “The Kentucky Derby is to horse racing what smash-up derby is to auto racing. A field of 20 is plain nuts, but we do it every year.  Unlike any other race, horses get more bumps and bruises and it requires a jockey with experience to keep from being boxed in.  The jockey needs to have a plan and they need to be able to adjust that plan on the fly at three critical places in the race: the first turn, the back stretch and the final turn to the home stretch.”

Bernadette O’Neil says she’ll look at riders like “Edgar Prado, Kent Desourmeaux, Mike Smith, Corey Nakatani,” when narrowing down her choices, but will factor in the physical appearance of their horses. “Does he or she look like an athlete (in) front and (are) hindquarters muscles or mush?” she wrote.

Libby Fraysure of Cincinnati has a shorter list: “I will bet on the horse Edgar Prado rides, he is making mountains out of mounts this year.”

Finally, Jeff Sarnecke wrote that lack of experience on the part of jockey Jeremy Rose might have cost Afleet Alex a chance at immortality in 2005. “More times than not a jockey will have a hard time with a crowded field,” he wrote. “Just ask Afleet Alex and whether we should have a Triple Crown with a different jockey!”

Unfortunately, despite the art at the top of this column, I can’t do that.

Thanks for the feedback! Let’s keep this rolling next week with a real toughie: Click here to send me your Derby trifecta and brief description of how you see the race being run. I’ll pick some of the best and run them with next week’s column and will dig out some sort of NBC Sports paraphernalia to anyone who picks the 1-2-3 finishers correctly.

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