Tom Curran • E-mail

We’re closing in on one of the most fascinating NFL Drafts in a long time. With no clear-cut No. 1 pick but six players at the top who’ve separated themselves from the pack it’s going to be a photo-finish on Saturday afternoon. These are the biggest storylines to watch this week.


1. What will Parcells pull?
At the owners meetings last month an NFL GM said to me, “Bill Parcells is the X-factor in this draft. With that No. 1 pick, he’ll either do the most obvious thing or something nobody’s expecting.” What would be the “most obvious thing” for Parcells to do with that first overall pick? Draft Matt Ryan. Think about it: Does Miami really want to sail into this major rebuilding phase with second-year pro John Beck at the controls? Ryan is the one quarterback in this draft – and likely next year’s as well – with the tools and mental makeup to be a franchise quarterback. He’s no sure thing, but he will be better than Beck. Miami can’t really afford to be tethered to a seemingly average player like Beck. You can’t really start over until you’ve adequately filled the most important position on the field. The sticking point for Miami may be the cost of a quarterback at No. 1. Last year’s No. 1 pick, Jamarcus Russell got $60 million over six years with $29 million guaranteed. Ryan will command more. But Parcells has never been shy about spending other people’s money. He’s proven in New England, New York and Dallas he’s not a “long haul” guy and he’s not going to get bogged down by the fiscal future. Now, Miami’s been playing contractual footsie with Michigan tackle Jake Long for weeks. If, as we’re hearing, that deal gets done and Long is the No. 1 pick, it will be out of character. What else could Parcells do that nobody expects? Pass on the No. 1 pick. Let St. Louis take Jake Long or Glenn Dorsey at No. 1 and then select Ryan with the No. 2 pick, irritating the league and setting the stage for a contentious debate with Ryan’s agent, Tom Condon, over whether Ryan should get at No. 2 more or less than Russell did. 

2. Can Atlanta pass on Matt Ryan?

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The Falcons face a situation that’s nearly identical to Miami’s. Does Atlanta, with the No. 3 pick, pass on Ryan if he’s still on the board and enter its rebuilding phase with Chris Redman and Joey Harrington as the top two guys on their quarterback depth chart? Do they have in the back of their minds that their former franchise quarterback, Michael Vick, could get sprung from jail and ride to the rescue? Or do they make the very sensible selection of Ryan at No. 3? Unlike the Dolphins, who got bounce with their fans from the mere hiring of Parcells, the Falcons need something and someone to invigorate their franchise. They might have greater on-field need for a player like Glenn Dorsey, but it’s a lot easier to sell tickets and club seats on the back of a quarterback than any other position.

3. Could It Be A Long-Long Day?
The Dolphins are getting hot and heavy with Jake Long and, with Jake gone, the Rams at No. 2 are certain to go defense with their pick. That means either Dorsey, Ohio State’s Vernon Gholston or Virginia defensive end Chris Long. And, as of early in the week, rumors are that the Chris Long camp is confident that he will become a Ram.

4. Present players causing pause
Justin Fargas. Jared Allen. Chris Redman. Brodie Croyle. These are some of the players who’ll have an impact on Saturday’s first round. Raiders head coach Lane Kiffin indicated his team’s pretty solid at running back with Fargas and Dominic Rhodes. The Chiefs, drafting fifth, have to weigh whether or not to take Vernon Gholston given their ongoing talks to moved defensive end Jared Allen. Redman? He’s at the top of the Falcons quarterback depth chart. Can a guy who was out of the league from 2004 to 2007 be good enough to run Atlanta during rebuilding? And the same goes for the Chiefs with Brodie Croyle and Damon Huard. And the Jets with Kellen Clemens. None of these top prospects are consensus “can’t miss” guys but if/when they work out, fans and the media will gently remind each front office of the decisions they did and didn’t make on April 26, 2008.

5. The McFadden dilemma
Darren McFadden. The next Adrian Peterson? The next Lawrence Phillips? Somewhere in between? There’s a wide range of opinions on the Arkansas running back with the 4.33 speed and chiseled frame. Some think he’s the draft’s best player. Others, like NFL Network analyst Brian Baldinger, are on record as saying he’ll be a monumental NFL bust. The Oakland Raiders are picking fourth and they already have a boom-bust player in the house with Jamarcus Russell. The Jets are picking sixth. They are a big “character” type team. Could McFadden rot on the shelf?

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