Forget predictions — can't count out Cardinals
Q: How’s that Detroit dethroning the Red Sox pick coming along?
— John Tuttle, Seattle
A: It’s looking better than it did last week, John. And that’s the point — there is a long, long way to go. The Tigers have started to hit like everybody figured they would, going 5-3 since the 0-7 start, and will get catalyst Curtis Granderson back in the lineup real soon.
They still have issues, particularly with their bullpen, but again, Fernando Rodney and Francisco Cruceta could bolster that soon, and Joel Zumaya is expected back in the second half. The other thing working in their favor is that the other top AL contenders have problems of their own, and aren’t pulling away in the standings. So there is plenty of time for the Tigers.
Nothing against the Red Sox, of course. I picked them to go 92-70 and win the AL East, so I expect them to be playing again in October, when we all know, pretty much anything can happen. But picking a repeat World Series winner isn’t something I like to do — it just doesn’t happen very often.
Q: Why is everyone so sure that Mark Teixeira will leave the Braves? He’s making $12.5 million this year, and at 27, does he really need to look for even bigger bucks? I’ve read that he loves the Braves, went to Georgia Tech, etc. Maybe he’ll stay. What do you think?
— Nancy Vance, Fayetteville, N.C.
A: The main reason that line of thinking exists is Teixeira is represented by Scott Boras, the agent who is notorious for getting his client the richest deal possible — and that almost always means changing teams. In fact, that’s how Teixeira got to the Braves in the first place, as the Rangers determined they weren’t going to be able to keep him out of free agency (which he is eligible for after the 2008 season), so they decided to deal him last July for a package that included catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia.
The Braves pushed their payroll back over the $100-million mark this season for the first time since 2003 despite not re-signing Andruw Jones. But they will free up $20 million by not picking up Mike Hampton’s option, and could have another $8.5 million to work with if Tom Glavine retires. So they could have the resources to keep Teixeira, which means it’s not a lock he'll leave.
The question is, as you mentioned, how much is enough? And is Teixeira willing to live with the pressures and demands that come with signing a huge free-agent deal in New York, Boston or Baltimore, where he was born, and where the Orioles are desperate to sign a star? Or will playing in Atlanta be enough to satisfy him? These are questions only he can answer, and won’t be able to until other options are in front of him.
Q: Much was made of Daisuke Matsuzaka’s ‘gyro-ball’ before he came to the United States. What happened? I haven’t heard anything about it since.
— Kate A., Walla Walla, Wash.
A: It’s basically an off-speed pitch that breaks down and in on right-handed hitters — a right-handed version of a screwball. But for whatever reason, the ‘gyro-ball’ name hasn’t caught on here. What impresses me most about Matsuzaka is his wide assortment of pitches, and his very competitive — some would say cocky — demeanor on the mound.
He’s far from a one-pitch wonder, and I expect him to have a better season than he did in 2007, now that he is more comfortable with the surroundings around the league. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins 18 games and leads the American League in strikeouts.
Q: Who had the most game-winning hits in the American League in 2007. My husband says it was Alex Rodriguez. I can’t find this anywhere.
— Dawn, Howell, N.J.
A: You can’t find it because they don’t keep it as an official statistic anymore. The problem people had with it boiled down to how the stat was determined. A player could hit a single in the first inning to give his team a 1-0 lead, and if his team stayed ahead and won the game, he got credited with a ‘game-winning’ hit.
Keeping track of ‘walk-off’ game-winning hits — ones that truly win the game — would be a better statistic, and so would keeping track of game-winning hits from the seventh inning on. One thing that is kept — at least by The Bill James Handbook — is batting average "late and close." In other words, a player’s batting average under the following conditions: Seventh inning or later, the batting team is either leading by one run, tied, or the tying run is on base, at bat or on deck.
The 2007 AL leaders in that category were Seattle teammates Kenji Johjima (.472) and Ichiro Suzuki (.402), and A-Rod was fourth at .357. The NL leaders were St. Louis teammates David Eckstein (.442) and Albert Pujols (.403). What I remember about A-Rod is how he carried the Yankees on his back early last season, when he delivered several game-winning hits, many of them home runs.
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