Houston (54-27)
The Rockets, Suns and Jazz have identical records, but the team of the 22-game win streak is pretty much entrenched at No. 5. Houston cannot leapfrog Utah, since the Jazz are divisional winners. The Rockets would have to lose to the Clippers at home Wednesday night for Phoenix to pass them, and you don't see that occurring, either.

So, the Rockets cannot pass the Jazz and cannot be passed by the Suns. What if San Antonio loses to Utah and Houston wins, putting both teams at 55-27? The Rockets and Spurs split their season series 2-2, but San Antonio gets home-court advantage by virtue of having given Houston Luis Scola in exchange for a bowl of gazpacho ... wait, what's that? Oh, the Spurs have a better divisional record, that's why.

Phoenix (54-27)
Assume the Suns win their regular-season finale vs. Portland on Tuesday night. Even if they lost, they could not finish worse than 6th. If they win, then they can only advance to fifth if Houston loses to the Clippers. If that happens, the Suns would play Utah (almost certainly) in the first round instead of San Antonio.

If you're a Suns fan, you want Houston to win. The Suns' animus for San Antonio makes the Spurs, the defending NBA champs, the ideal first-round opponent. Listen, the NBA Western Conference playoffs is going to be a Saving Private Ryan battle of attrition, and you want your team to be Ed Burns. In order to "earn this," why not KO the reigning champs right away? Demonstrate that the deal for Shaq was the correct move after all?

A team such as the Jazz would give the Suns fits. It's just the type of up-tempo, unsung squad that a veteran bunch such as Phoenix (which finished 1-2 against Utah) will not take as seriously as they should.

Hence, here's what I think your first round will look like, and my predicted winners:

(8) Denver vs (1) Los Angeles: Lakers in 4, and keep your eyes on Jordan Farmar.
(7) Dallas vs (2) New Orleans: Dallas in 5, because Dirk is playing out of his schwindlig right now.
(6) Phoenix vs (3) San Antonio: Phoenix in 4, after which Tony Parker announces that he is leaving wife Eva Longoria for Tampa Bay Ray rookie Evan Longoria.
(5) Houston vs (4) Utah: Rockets in 5 in the series most likely to be decided by a questionable call, giving benefit of the doubt to Tracy McGrady.

Dakota Fan Out
As if you did not already know, Tax Day is also the first day of the NBA Developmental League playoffs. There's a doozy going on in the Dakotas, as the Dakota Wizards of Bismarck travel south to face the Sioux Falls Skyforce. It's North Dakota vs. South Dakota in a true "win or go home" setting, as the first two rounds of the D-League postseason are single-elimination.

The other first-round game tonight pits the Los Angeles D-Fenders versus the Colorado 14ers (currently under investigation by "To Catch A Predator"). Which reminds me, two ideas for that "There Can Only Be One" campaign:

1) Locker room jumping D-Fender star and Laker 12th man Coby Karl sharing face time with his dad, Nuggets head coach George Karl, or ...
2) Full-body split-screen of D-Fender Coby Karl and Laker Coby Karl.

And Finally…
If you still have a copy of Tuesday's USA Today, check out the photo on page 9C (Sports). A Sonics fan, identified as Jason Little, holds up a sign that reads: "Clay Bennet is a LIAR and a THEIF." Never mind that the Sonics owner spells his surname with two "T's".

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