OPINION

By Vinnie Iyer

updated 7:56 p.m. ET April 9, 2008

When it comes to projecting the first pick of the 2008 NFL draft, it's a mock consensus down to a tale of the same last name: Virginia defensive end Chris Long vs. Michigan offensive tackle Jake Long.

The debate is heightened because the team picking at No. 1, the Miami Dolphins, has dire needs on both lines, and Chris and Jake are elite prospects who play opposite positions. In addition, Dolphins boss Bill Parcells has a pre-draft poker face that's hard to read.

Looking at the two options, however, the decision should be easy: If the team isn't able to trade down, going with Chris Long is the best pick for the Dolphins. And it comes with good reasons.

Defensive end is the NFL's hot position. You might have noticed the New York Giants won the Super Bowl on the strength of the league's most prolific pass rush, thanks in large part to their talent and depth at defensive end. It's difficult enough to find two good ones to start; those fortunate teams that have three or four capable edge pass rushers have an advantage in how they come after quarterbacks.

It's uncertain how much longer Jason Taylor will remain a Dolphin or in the NFL, but when he's not trying to outdance Kristi Yamaguchi he still is one of the game's elite ends, even though he turns 34 in September.

As Long develops into an impact player — and regardless of whether the defense is more 3-4 or 4-3 — he can learn from Taylor and Joey Porter and join some young, developing pass rushers in the Dolphins' mix, including Matt Roth and Quentin Moses.

Chris Long can't come in and suddenly help the Dolphins shoot up from 30 sacks into the Giants' stratosphere (a league-high 53 in the '07 regular season). But, like Osi Umenyiora or DeMarcus Ware, a player Parcells knows well from his days in Dallas, Long can be established as the near-future foundation of everything the Dolphins do to attack opponents up front.

Chris Long has an unquestioned pedigree for NFL success. Unless you've been in remote Uzbekistan the past year, you know Chris is the son of Hall of Famer Howie Long. The elder Long, before he started hanging out with Teri Hatcher and Terry Bradshaw, was a devastating pass rusher, first for Villanova and then for the Oakland/Los Angeles Raiders, excelling at both defensive end and defensive tackle.

Chris has been blessed with his father's pass-rush skills and is an amazing athlete in his own right. A sleek yet powerful defender at 6-4 and 256 pounds, Chris' abilities are reminiscent of another Virginia defensive end who has recently made a mark in the NFL: Patrick Kerney, who had a career-high 14 1/2 sacks in '07, his first season with the Seattle Seahawks.

One more thing: As a Cavalier, Chris was coached by another former Virginia defensive end, Al Groh. Groh just happens to be one of Parcells' most trusted defensive minds from his coaching stops, ranking not too far down on the list after Bill Belichick. Groh's 3-4 knowledge and NFL coaching experience can't be forgotten in assessing Long's potential value to the Dolphins.

Jake Long isn't Joe Thomas-good. Based just on the facts — Jake played the most important pass-protecting position of left tackle in Michigan's pro-style offense, helping stars such as Chad Henne and Mike Hart shine over the past three years — it's easy to see why he is seen as the "safe pick" at No. 1.

But as someone who watches tons of Big Ten games every season, there was no evidence of Long ever being as strong as Thomas, the former Wisconsin standout who had a dazzling rookie year as the left tackle for the Cleveland Browns' prolific offense in '07.

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Don't get me wrong: Jake Long looks set to have a solid NFL career and is a worthy high-first-round prospect. It's just that Chris Long offers a lot more pop, and that's what you want from the No. 1 overall pick.

I also keep thinking back to the biggest regular-season game for Jake Long and Michigan in 2007 — against hated Ohio State. In that game, Long gave up his first and only sack as a senior, to another elite draft prospect, Buckeyes defensive end Vernon Gholston. Long kept the rest of the Big Ten from sacking either Henne or Ryan Mallett, but the conference lacked big-time pass rushers in '07. Gholston was a key test. Really, it was more the Wolverines' line as a whole that couldn't handle Gholston, but still, the game didn't make Long look all that good.

If I felt Long was as good as Thomas, he would be the unquestioned No. 1 player on my draft board. That just isn't the case, and Chris Long, a safer end prospect than Gholston, seems more like the true "safe pick." With Mario Williams proving worthy of going No. 1 over Reggie Bush in '06 based on what Williams did in his second NFL season, it has helped the draft stock of elite defensive ends this year.

There are more later-round values to be had at offensive tackle. While there is a big dropoff from Chris Long and Gholston in terms of immediate-impact pass-rush potential at defensive end, teams still have time to find multiple great values on the offensive line beyond Round 1. That's especially true for Miami, considering Parcells will have nine total draft picks with which to work.

It's probable that one of the following four offensive tackles — Vanderbilt's Chris Williams, Pitt's Jeff Otah, Boston College's Gosder Cherilus or Virginia Tech's Duane Brown — will slide to No. 32 overall, when the Dolphins pick at the top of the second round. In years when the New England Patriots don't cheat, that's the equivalent of having two first-round picks.

Despite another set of facts — new Dolphins coach Tony Sparano came to Miami after watching over the Dallas Cowboys' offensive line and Miami finished better defensively (23rd) than offensively (28th) last season —something tells me Parcells will land his Ware-like potential stud first on draft day. He won't go wrong with Chris Long.

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