John Walters

Since the NCAA tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, all four No. 1 seeds have never advanced to the Final Four. Not once. In fact, three No. 1s have advanced beyond Semis Saturday (hey, that's alliterative … I am so going to trademark that) just once since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985.

However, heading into this weekend's four Elite Eight games, all four No. 1 seeds are still playing. North Carolina. Kansas. Memphis. UCLA. Sure, you thought all of them had the talent and poise to reach San Antonio (except Memphis), but you were still reluctant to take all four in your office pool. Because you knew: it's never happened before. Someone (Memphis?) was bound to be upset.

We stand at the precipice of a potential first-time first-seed foursome in Texas next weekend. Maybe not, though. This is where probability becomes intriguing. Every top seed will be favored in its game, but March Madness history strongly suggests that one of the four will lose. Who will it be?

East Regional Final — No. 1 North Carolina vs No. 3 Louisville
Watching the Cardinals play in this tournament reminds me of that vignette from the "Planet Earth" series in which the hyenas chase the antelope. Louisville attacks from all sides, is relentless, and always seems to have the opposition outnumbered. Rick Pitino's team is forcing 17 turnovers per game and playing its best defense of the year.

Then again, that antelope did escape. The Tar Heels have won by an average margin of 31 points and are 7-0 all-time in Charlotte in the NCAAs. As tempted as I am to side with Pitino, I cannot. What color is the sky in my world? Today, it's Carolina blue.

Winner? Carolina, with 75 percent confidence.

West Regional Final — No. 1 UCLA versus No. 3 Xavier
Could UCLA really lose? The Bruins have been trying to lose a game for the last four weeks, but either the referees or Kevin Love just won't let them. Love's counterpart, Josh Duncan, may be the only other player in the tournament who's both muscular enough to battle him low but as skillful a 3-point shooter. If Duncan can neutralize Love, or simply play him to a draw, we might have an upset.

The Musketeers have a defensive stopper in guard Stanley Burrell, who could draw UCLA's explosive Russell Westbrook. They are converting 7.3 three-pointers per game in the tourney, and every one of their starters can score. This is a veteran team that completely flustered West Virginia for nearly a half.

The X-factor for the Bruins may be reserve forward James Keefe, who seemed to be inhabited by the spirit of Bobby Jones (the Philadelphia 76er, not the golfer) against Western Kentucky on Thursday. The 6-8 sophomore came off the bench to score 18 points and grab 12 rebounds. Ben Howland had been waiting for one of his starting forwards to have a game like that since the tourney began.

UCLA led by 21 points early in the second half against Western Kentucky, and yet the Hilltoppers whittled the lead down to four. The Bruins trailed most of the second half versus Texas A&M before Love rescued them. Ben Howland's team is entertaining, but they are not dominant.

Winner? Toss-up.

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