Ray Glier

CHARLOTTE, N.C. - North Carolina is well coached, but so is Louisville. The Tar Heels have that essential college basketball ingredient, selflessness, but Louisville has it, too. Carolina has enough quality spare parts to start another good team, but so does Louisville.

We can go on here. North Carolina is on a roll (average NCAA Tournament win: 30.3 points). Louisville is on a roll, too (average NCAA Tournament win: 22.3 points). The Tar Heels are quick and long, but so are the Cardinals.

Carolina has a star. Louisville has a ….

This is where you have to stop.

Louisville needs a star, especially Saturday night.

It would have a better chance against North Carolina if Terrence Williams would accept the role, drape it around his shoulders, and fly for 22 or 24 points.

If not the 6-foot-6 Williams, then Earl Clark, the 6-foot-9 sophomore who is averaging 15 points a game in his last five games, would be a prime candidate. If he had played like he has all season like he has the last three weeks, this might be his final year college basketball.

The Cards have a chance against North Carolina because their defense makes opponents uneasy, but where Louisville can really wreck North Carolina’s roll is with Williams and Clark making an expedition to the basket for points.

Williams slashes toward the rim; Clark plays above it. If one goes for 22 and the other goes for 20, the Cards win Saturday and who knows if UCLA or Kansas will have anything for Louisville in the Final Four.

The problem is Williams passes too much. He sets up teammates, but there are going to be times when North Carolina is not going to help and he is going to have to finish. He scores just 11 a game because he doesn’t shoot enough. (He'll score more in the NBA, but he's unselfish for Pitino's bunch.)

Williams blew up beleaguered Tennessee because of his aggressive style, which usually resulted in easy baskets for teammates. An over-the-shoulder flip went for two; a lob to the rim went for two. Williams is going to have to go for two himself against the Heels.

If Williams scores, Louisville’s defense will be better able to mix itself up between zone, man-to-man, and pressure.

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If Williams is reluctant with the ball, Clark better not be. He has made 27-of-44 shots in his last five games. If I were an NBA general manager and had to choose between Clark and UNC's Tyler Hansbrough I would have to think about it.

On defense, he is particularly imposing when Louisville goes to its zone because Clark is on the right wing flying at shooters who spot up for the 3.

The Cards have lost games this season is when their shots don't fall. But with Williams breaking down defenses with his drives and Clark getting inside, the Cardinals do not have to settle for 3-pointers and they get better shots.

There is no question, Louisville plays better defense than North Carolina. They scramble around the floor, face up on opponents and funnel guards to their big men inside. They'll force Hansbrough to go away from the basket and face up, which will keep him from flipping passes to Carolina's shooters. 

North Carolina is improved on defense, but it is not as good. Washington State just missed shots when it got waxed by 21. The Cougars had looks at the rim and missed.

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Louisville does not give you looks at the rim. It gives you a maze of arms to shoot through. Rick Pitino’s 1996 Kentucky team was sensational on defense. This Louisville team may be as good.

Carolina, however, will get plenty of free looks at the rim if the officials do not bring some guts Saturday night. This game, after all, is two hours from the Chapel Hill campus. Expect a throng of powder blue in the stands. As we have seen often this season, officiating crews, no matter how experienced, are made edgy by the home crowd.

Maybe this crew Saturday night will be more seasoned, but Hansbrough usually gets his way. A veteran crew let him flail away in the second half against Washington State on Thursday night in the second half when the game wasn’t coming to him and he got away with the trampling.

I guess it is the All-American exemption.

Williams won’t get any exemptions, neither will Clark. They will have to go get their shots and carry the load from the field.

There are some other things to consider in this game. Pitino is 35-11 in the NCAA Tournament. His teams are 12-2 in regional semifinals and finals and he has been to the Final Four five times with three different teams.

You need to understand, too, that Louisville is finally healthy. There is a post game, no more reliance on three-pointers, and the shot selection is better.

Louisville vs. North Carolina will be the decisive game of the NCAA Tournament because I haven’t seen two teams that are better. The defense will keep Louisville in it. If there is enough offense from Williams and Clark it will lead to an upset and a national championship.

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