Ken Davis

Defining upsets in college basketball seems to increase in difficulty with each passing season. But for the purposes of the official NCAA men’s Final Four Records Book, they are defined as “when the winner of the game was seeded five or more places lower than the team it defeated.”

Based on that, the 2007 NCAA Tournament was relatively upset free, with only three games matching that definition. In the first round, Winthrop and Virginia Commonwealth, No. 11 seeds, defeated No. 6 Notre Dame and No. 6 Duke. In the second round, No. 7 UNLV knocked off No. 2 Wisconsin.

That was it. It was the quietest tournament — by definition — since 1982, when two No. 11 seeds won the in the first round and No. 8 Boston College upset No. 1 DePaul in the second round.

We now have the bracket for the 2008 tournament in hand. It’s hard to predict whether this tournament will follow last year’s form or more closely resemble 2002 or 2006, when there were 11 outcomes that qualified for official upset status. But we all know it wouldn’t be an NCAA Tournament without some upsets and it certainly wouldn’t be March Madness without a few darkhorses having their impact on the field.

For the purposes of this column, we will define a darkhorse as any team seeded No. 6 or lower. Only three teams seeded No. 6 or lower have ever won a national championship. Villanova was a No. 8 seed in 1985. North Carolina State and Kansas were No. 6 seeds when they won in 1983 and 1988.

History won’t be rewritten in 2008. Our next champion will likely come from the top two lines. Since 1979, a No. 1 seed has won the title 15 times and a No. 2 seed has won six times. But there are at least two teams in each region that deserve the darkhorse label. Here are the teams we think can create the most chaos on your bracket sheets.

Butler (No. 7, East, 29-3, Horizon champion)
Butler defeated Cleveland State 70-55 in the Horizon tournament championship, earning an automatic bid for the first time since 2001. But the Bulldogs have reached the tournament as an at-large twice since. Last year Butler made it to the regional final before losing to eventual national champion Florida.

The committee did an excellent job this season but Butler may have deserved a higher seed. This is a veteran team, led by guards Mike Green and A.J. Graves. Butler knows how to win and the Bulldogs understand the tournament process. Beating No. 10 South Alabama would not be an upset.

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A victory over No. 2 Tennessee in the second round would a major statement for coach Brad Stevens and his team, but not something new. Butler won at Tennessee on Nov. 22, 2006. Final score: 56-44.

USC (No. 6, Midwest, 21-11, Pac-10 at-large)
The Trojans are back in the dance and they might be capable of matching last year’s run to the Sweet 16.

USC, a No. 5 seed last year, defeated Arkansas and Texas but couldn’t stop North Carolina in the regional semifinal. Tim Floyd is a talented coach who seems to thrive under the pressure of the postseason. And this time, he has freshman O.J. Mayo along for the ride. Mayo will be asked a million times if he is thinking about playing his last game in a USC uniform — before turning pro — but the fact is Mayo is playing his best basketball of the season.

The Trojans had won six of seven before losing to UCLA 57-54 in the Pac-10 tournament. If you like freshmen, you’ll like the first-round matchup against Michael Beasley and Kansas State, to be played in Omaha. Don’t be surprised if USC beats No. 11 K-State and No. 3 Wisconsin to reach the Sweet 16 again.

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Mississippi State (No. 8, South, 22-10, SEC at-large)
It’s always dangerous to pick a team playing the 8 vs. 9 game in the first round. But I don’t think there’s any doubt that the Bulldogs are better than Oregon.

Once Rick Stansbury’s team gets past the Ducks, there is an opportunity waiting in the second round, most likely against No. 1 seed Memphis. There is a lot of talent and athleticism on a roster that includes Jamont Gordon, Charles Rhodes, Ben Hansbrough (Tyler’s brother), and Jarvis Varnado. The Bulldogs could get physical with Memphis and cause problems for the Tigers. Memphis could be the first No. 1 seed to tumble if Mississippi State puts the Tigers on the free throw line.

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