Tom E. Curran • E-mail

When an NFL work stoppage comes – either a strike by the players or a lockout from the owners – the first four days of the 2008 free agent period will be the smoking gun.

It was the period in which a collection of "nice" players were given "star" contracts. It was a time when a decent No. 2 receiver like Bernard Berrian got a six-year, $42 million deal from the Vikings with $16 million guaranteed and a pedestrian safety like Gibril Wilson was given a deal for six years and $39 million by the Raiders.

With a salary cap number that rose from $85.5 million in 2005 to $116 million beginning last Friday, money has flooded the market and it’s been a shock to the system.

For the players, this is terrific. For too long, they’ve felt the owners were able to hide behind the cap and had avoided sharing with the players any of the lucrative revenue streams like naming rights and local TV deals with the players.

Until 2005, owners only had to share something called "Designated Gross Revenues" (DGR).

In the spring of 2006, NFL Players Association president Gene Upshaw won what many considered a knockout win for the players by getting all revenues included in the pot and pushing an agreement in which, this year, the players get 58 percent of the league’s gross.

That 58 percent determined the $116 million cap. Now, the football side of franchises – GMs and coaches – are in to win and are going to spend to stay competitive. And the players and their agents are in a windfall period so they’re not going to complain in the least.

But the owners? They’re seeing a 27 percent increase in payroll – a $31 million rise per team in a span of 24 months. And that’s tough to swallow.

The owners can opt out of the current CBA after in November of 2008 – two years before it’s set to expire – if nine of the 32 want to get back to the table. Even if they owners opt out, the deal won’t expire until after the 2010 season and a likely stoppage wouldn’t come until 2011.

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But the ramifications of an opt-out will be felt earlier. Since there would be no salary cap when the 2010 league year starts in March of that year, the start of the 2009 league year (less than a year away) will be chaotic as players who have expiring contracts may not want to agree to long-term deals because – 12 months later – there will be no salary cap.

Cowboys owner Jerry Jones told the Dallas Morning News recently he expects that to happen: "One-hundred percent of clubs have aspects to the labor agreement they don't like. When you have that kind of dynamic going, there is a chance for an opt out."

Soaring contracts aren’t the only issue driving a wedge in between owners and players. Rookie contracts – especially high, first-round deals – are getting harder to reconcile. Last year’s No. 1 pick, JaMarcus Russell, signed a six-year, $61 million deal with about $30 million in guarantees. He had two touchdowns and four picks last year – a wasted season because of a holdout that went into September. And still nobody knows how well he can play at the NFL level.

And, working against players now, is the use of the franchise tag. With the cap number rising, it’s been easier to rationalize spending $8 million for one season to lock down a decent corner of defensive end and prevent him from getting to free agency and realizing the windfall of a long-term deal.

The trouble is real. And it's later than you think.

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