Mike Brunker Horse racing editor • Profile • E-mail

Speed figures have certainly made life easier for handicappers, but their shortcomings are there for all to see in the post-race assessment of Saturday’s Sham Stakes (Gr. 2) at Santa Anita.

The problem with single-figure speed figures is they eliminate pace from the equation when measuring how fast a race was run. So when a race is run very slowly early, speed figures typically undervalue the outcome.

That certainly seems to be the case in the Sham, which saw pace-setter Victory Pete set dawdling early fractions of :24.97, :50.04 and 1:14.35. Winner Colonel John simply relaxed on his outside hip, then took off at the top of the stretch and sprinted to the wire.

The closing kick displayed by both the winner and runner-up El Gato Malo was impressive -- both covered the final 3/8ths of a mile in under :36 seconds. But because the early pace was so pokey, their Beyer speed figures were pedestrian. Colonel John earned an 86 for the effort, with El Gato Malo garnering an 85.

By comparison, Absolutely Cindy earned an 89 in defeating what almost certainly was a softer field in the John Battaglia Memorial at Turfway Park.

It remains to be seen how the West Coast contingent sizes up against leading Kentucky Derby contenders such as War Pass and Pyro, but I feel confident that they are better than the speed figures they earned on Saturday would suggest.

(What do you think? I’d love to hear from readers this week how they think the West Coast horses compare to the Easterners. Click on this link to weigh in. Best responses will be published in next week’s column.)

Did pace affect Sham outcome?
In addition to deflating the Beyer figures, the pace in the Sham may have affected the outcome.

Colonel John got a dream trip under jockey Garrett Gomez and had enough energy to hold off the game El Gato Malo by half a length. The latter was patiently rated along the rail by David Flores until the top of the stretch, when he intimidated his way outward to get clear sailing, then flattened out and came hard after the winner, steadily closing the gap despite wandering a bit nearing the 1/16^th pole.

El Gato Malo did have a recency advantage over Colonel John, who was making his first start since Dec. 22, but I came away wondering if the best horse won. We’ll know more if they meet again in the Santa Anita Derby (Gr. 1) on April 5, a race the connections of both horses said they are pointing toward.

Meantime, a big Hoofbeat shout out to the “connection” of Absolutely Cindy, winner of the $100,000 John Battaglia Memorial Stakes at Turfway Park on Saturday.

Keith Kinmon, the 53-year-old trainer, owner and breeder of the 3-year-old filly, ignored conventional wisdom by running the daughter of Arch against the boys so early in the year. Absolutely Cindy, who clearly loves the Turfway Polytrack, rewarded his faith with an eye-catching wide run around the turn that eventually carried her past Your Round in the final 50 yards.

Kinmon, who owns a steel company and has been training on and off since 1992, gets even more of our respect for staying realistic, indicating he will run his filly next against her own kind in the Bourbonette Stakes on March 22. After that, the Daily Racing Form reports, he’s thinking maybe the Ashland Stakes at Keeneland and the Kentucky Oaks at Churchill, if she handles the dirt there OK in the mornings.

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