Dan Pompei

Usually by this time we have a pretty good idea of who the first pick in the NFL draft will be. This year, it still is all up for grabs.

I asked 10 front office men with NFL teams who they would take with the first pick.

Three said they would take Boston College quarterback Matt Ryan. It makes sense that Ryan would go first because of the position he plays. Quarterbacks have been taken with the top pick in eight of the last 10 drafts.

Two put in a vote for Arkansas running back Darren McFadden. He probably is the draft's most talented player.

Another two said they would select Virginia defensive end Chris Long. He has the production (14 sacks as a senior) and the pedigree (he’s the son of Howie).

The final three would take LSU defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey. An impact player on the interior defensive line can make everyone around him better.

The reason why no clear-cut No. 1 has emerged is there really isn’t a player who has separated himself from the others. There are questions about each of the final four, some of which may be answered at the scouting combine in Indianapolis which begins Feb. 20.

While most talent evaluators agree Ryan should be a fine pro, he is not rated as highly as some previous top quarterback picks such as JaMarcus Russell, Eli Manning and Carson Palmer.

“This year none of the quarterbacks are franchise guys,” one team president said. “You can’t even argue they might be. But the reason you take a quarterback even if he’s not the perfect prospect is that’s the only position where the pay for the first pick in the draft would even be close to being justified. It has a chance to be justified. Whoever you get, you’re going to severely overpay.”

The success of Vikings rookie running back Adrian Peterson can help enhance McFadden’s stock, but most teams are reluctant to take a running back so high because they can be fairly certain of finding a competent runner later in the draft.

“I wouldn’t spend the first pick on a running back,” an AFC general manager said. “But if somebody else needed to infuse a spark in what they were trying to do offensively, he could pick McFadden.”

Browns general manager Phil Savage points out there likely will be a learning curve with McFadden. The junior was used on a lot of gimmicky plays out of the “wild hog” formation, and rarely ran power plays, counters and lead draws. Arkansas used Jones on most of the traditional runs.

Slideshow   The Week in Sports Pictures A kayaker flips out, a racehorse eyes the Triple Crown and more. more photos

Long probably is the safest pick among the top four. He probably won’t be a bust, but he also probably won’t be a hall of famer like his father. “He’s 280 pounds,” one AFC general manager said. “It’s not like he’s 320 and dominant.”

Long can go help his draft stock significantly with a great combine workout. There is some skepticism about his athleticism and speed.

There are a couple of issues with Dorsey, even though no one doubts he can play in the NFL. The first is he has a knee problem. Doctors at the combine will give him a thorough going over in hopes of finding out of the knee can be repaired.

The second issue is Dorsey will not fit every defense. If the Dolphins elect to run a 3-4 defense, choosing Dorsey will make little sense. You don’t use the first pick in the draft on a nose tackle — which is what Dorsey would play in a three-man front.

Any defensive lineman chosen that high should provide a lot of sacks, and as gifted as Dorsey is, he might not be a player who gets double-digit sacks. “It’s a tough sell if you’re going to pay a guy $20 million and he’s not going to get sacks,” Eagles general manager Tom Heckert said.

In one form or another, any of the players who could be chosen with the first pick in the draft is a tough sell.