Tom Curran • E-mail

PHOENIX - On Dec. 29, the Patriots beat the New York Giants 38-35 to improve to 16-0 and drop the Giants to 10-6.

Included in those 35 points for New York was a 74-yard kickoff return for a touchdown and a touchdown with 68 seconds left.

When the Patriots found themselves trailing New York 28-16 early in the third quarter, they reeled off 22 unanswered points during a span of 19 minutes and 20 seconds. The Patriots played that night without their starting right guard and starting right tackle. They allowed exactly one sack to the vaunted Giants pass rush. New England’s offense had the ball for more than 36 minutes.

Patriots safety Rodney Harrison said this week, “We played our worst defensive game of the year. We gave up 35 points. We were fourth in the league in points given up and we gave up 35 points. …We played terrible. Everybody’s talking about what happened in the last game of the season. That was the last game of the season. I guarantee you we’re not going to go out there and play as poorly as we played last time, but we walked away with a win.”

If the Patriots can play that poorly and win, how can anyone expect that – with two weeks of preparation – the best coach of this generation, the best quarterback of this generation, the highest-scoring team of all time will not win by a knockout in Super Bowl XLII?

But you’re out there. I know you are. And you’re riled now. You don’t want the Giants chariot to turn into a pumpkin out here in the desert. You believe this Giants team of destiny is going to pull the covers up over the face of the New England dynasty.

You bought into “New Eli”, Plaxico’s prediction, Brady’s bad ankle and those playoff wins at Tampa, Dallas and Green Bay. You hold out hope for an epic upset. You KNOW it’s going to be tight. I’m sorry. It’s not going to be that way. The Giants have…no shot.

They’ve been a nice story. What Eli Manning’s has done in this postseason has shut up doubters (disclosure: I’m a reformed Eli Hater, eight weeks in the program) and set the table for a career more befitting his draft status. What Tom Coughlin and the Giants team did in winning 10 straight games on the road is absolutely remarkable. It’s hard not to get swept up on the Big Blue wave.

But so much of the evidence referenced by those who give the Giants a shot is from that game on December 29. A game the Giants…LOST. A game in which they played absolutely lights out for the first 35 minutes. A game in which their defense allowed 38 points.

The greatest mismatch is the Patriots receivers against the Giants secondary. In the first meeting, Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Kevin Faulk combined for 25 catches and 286 receiving yards.

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Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is smart enough to know that, if he doesn’t get pressure on Brady, his secondary will get shredded again. So this will be a blitz-heavy defensive game plan.

Trouble is, no matter how much pressure Spagnuolo brings, the New England offensive line and running backs are going to pick it up. They’ve seen it all and they’ve had two weeks to go to school on what Spagnuolo’s tendencies are. The Patriots will spread the Giants out so that their blitz intentions are easy to read.

Spagnuolo may try to use the same strategy the Jaguars and Chargers employed against New England – jam the outside receivers and always have a safety shading to Moss’ side. The problem is, the Giants don’t have the same size and talent the Chargers and Jaguars did. Aaron Ross and Sam Madison are not as big and physical as Antonio Cromartie, Quentin Jammer, Brian Williams and Rashean Mathis. That’s what helped limit Moss. The size of the corners he was going against. And the Giants safeties – James Butler and Gibril Wilson are not top tier safeties. He’d be wise to play a little softer and hope the blitz gets there.

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Either way, it will either be a slow death by 7, 9 and 14-yard completions to mismatch headache Welker or Moss running past his corners and safeties.

When the Giants have the ball, New England will take chances. They allowed Manning far too much comfort in the pocket in the first meeting and didn’t shut down the Giants offense until their pass rush started getting through. This time, they’ll try to get after Manning right out of the chutes.

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New York won’t want to get into a track meet so look for offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride to lean on his running backs early. Ahmad Bradshaw would be a better bet against New England’s somewhat big but not-so-fast linebackers than Brandon Jacobs. But the Giants cannot get themselves into third-and-5 or more because the Patriots will give Manning looks he hasn’t seen on film. That’s a guarantee. The Giants only hope is for Manning to be mistake-free. He won’t be.

Aside from the fact New England has the edge in every physical matchup except against wide receiver Plaxico Burress, the Patriots have also been here before. Several times. This is a whole new ballgame for the Giants. And it’s going to be a whole different ballgame from the one played December 29.

Patriots 48, Giants 17.

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