Mike Celizic

PHOENIX - The Giants can win this football game, and anybody who doesn’t see that either just fell off the turnip truck or simply hasn’t been paying attention.

Upsets happen in sports, monumental upsets like the Red Sox coming back from 0-3 to win four straight and the 2004 ALCS from the Yankees. Like Villanova over Georgetown in 1985. Like Buster Douglas knocking out Mike Tyson.

Those were all-time upsets, enormous underdogs any way you looked at them somehow figuring out a way to win. The betting line, which had the Pats as 11.5-point favorites the last I looked, suggests that this would be the same.

It’s not. The betting line is just a reflection of how much money is coming in on each team. It keeps going up or down until the money evens out on both sides, which is how bookies manage to rarely lose money. And since everybody with a spare Ben Franklin to put on the game thinks the Pats are going to win, the line is big.

But the reality is these two teams are a lot closer than that. You could even argue that the Giants have played better over the last month or six weeks than the Pats. Down here, some people are calling the Giants the hottest team in football, winners of three straight road playoff games, the last two over the Cowboys and Packers.

Super Bowl XLII Thousands of New Yorkers cheer champs Giants stun Pats  |  Best Super Bowl ever The biggest Super Bowl upsets  |  Vote Relentless ‘D’ stifles Pats  |  N.E. Patriot-ed NBC: Giants believed  | 5 reasons behind win MVP still a Manning  |  Big time  |  More titles? Tyree’s catch of a lifetime saves Giants Brady no longer the perfect QB  |    Images Super Blog: Pithy comments, reader reaction First person: Fan photos  |  MVP?  |    Discuss Team pages:  Giants  |  Pats  |  More coverage

I’m not sure what that makes New England — the worst 18-0 team in NFL history? But facts are facts. The Giants are playing every bit as well as New England. Defensively, they may even be playing better.

Just over a month ago, when these two teams met in the regular season, the Pats were also big favorites. They barely eked out a 38-35 victory, needing to rally from a 12-point deficit in the second half.

Eli Manning was 22-for-32 with four touchdowns. He made just one mistake the entire game, and that was a critical interception that wasn’t his fault. It was late in the game and the Giants were driving to take the lead again. The game swung on that one bad break.

Manning has played three games since then, all playoff contests, and he hasn’t thrown an interception in any of them. And that’s the first key to beating the Patriots: Don’t give them extra possessions.

So let’s assume that Manning doesn’t throw that pick. And let’s also assume that that the Giants get their running game going with a little more effectiveness than they did on Dec. 29, when they rushed for just 79 yards. And let’s also assume they get one big play from their return game, as they did that day when Domenik Hixon scored on a 74-yard kick return.

You see what I’m saying here? The Giants don’t have to play that much better to win this thing. The Pats talk about that game as an occasion when they didn’t have their best day ever, but in brutal conditions, Tom Brady was 32-for-42 for 356 yards, two scores and zero interceptions. They didn’t run the ball well — just 44 yards is all they got — but they hardly stunk out the joint.

The Giants will try to stop the run again and make it an aerial circus — risky business against Brady and company. And here’s where the Giants have to do one thing they didn’t do in December. They have to get to Brady, who was sacked just 21 times in 16 regular-season games.

Brady’s got a bum ankle. That’s been pretty well documented. It won’t keep him from playing, but if the Giants can put some licks on him, that ankle isn’t going to appreciate it. They don’t have to knock him out, just slow him up and make it harder for him to drive off that back foot on his passes.

With his ankle injured, Brady threw three interceptions against the Chargers after throwing only eight all year. He may be the best quarterback since Joe Montana, but Super Joe lost big games now and then, including one to the Giants when New York was on its way to its first Super Bowl after the 1986 season.

Super Bowl XLII interactives Matchups: Who has the edge? Compare Pats, Giants lineups X-factors  |  Fans’ photos

The Giants don’t need a lot. Give them a plus-two in turnovers, and they are very much in position to win this game. The Patriots didn’t really stop the Giants back in December. They’ll make adjustments for this game — no team is better at that than New England. They may even try to slow the game up and establish a running game. But the Giants will make adjustments, too. So far, their coaching staff has met every challenge thrown at it.

It isn’t going to be 23-17 like the Giants’ resident knucklehead predicted. The winner’s probably going to have to score at least 35 and maybe more to walk away with the NFL’s big silver football. But it’s not going to be as easy as the betting line makes it out to be.

Slide show   Week in Sports Pictures Flying on the hardwood, racing on the rink, getting physical on the gridiron, and much more. more photos

The Pats are the favorites and they should be. But the Giants aren’t going to roll over. They believe they can win this game, and that means they can win it.

I’ve already said elsewhere that New England will win, but the predictions of writers aren’t worth the electrons that are sacrificed to bring them to your computer screen. I still think they’ll win, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they don’t.

The Giants are that good, good enough to pull off what will go down as an upset for the ages. They’ll have to play a perfect game and force the Patriots into some mistakes. But write this down.

The Giants can win.

Don't miss this on MSNBC.com Pass it on: Sons of infertile men may be next The eight biggest Olympic marketing debacles Reality show judges range from wise to wacko Cosmic Log: Is this your jetpack? Forget your inhibitions: World's sexiest islands