Although 2-year-old purses are extremely lucrative, it’s possible to achieve the Derby’s earnings requirements by capturing one of five to seven key graded stakes in late spring. If anything, the trend for success seems to be with horses that are lightly raced as 3-year-olds. 

All combined, Street Sense, Curlin and Hard Spun ran in only seven races prior to the Derby as 3-year-olds. Curlin was one of only eight Derby starters this decade to not race as a 2-year-old. Neither Curlin nor Hard Spun, with three starts – all victories -- as a 2-year-old, made the Experimental Free Handicap. Lightly raced horses have comprised the Derby field for at least the last 30 years, which could explain, in part, why the dual qualifier method stopped working 20 years ago.

Ten years ago, writing for the New York Times, Jay Privman noted, “Of the 13 horses in the 1960 Kentucky Derby, the average number of pre-Derby starts was nearly 21.”  In the year of his article, Derby entrants averaged a mere 8.4 starts. Could the fragility of the current breed be a contributing factor to the lower number? Last spring, several Kentucky Derby hopefuls, including the promising Horse Greeley and Tiz Wonderful, disappeared to the sidelines early.

Last year, the field averaged 7.9 pre-Derby starts, with nine starters having had seven races or fewer. Moreover, it is an old belief that a horse must have raced as a 2-year-old in order to be good enough for a chance for the roses.  At least one Derby starter in each of the last five years began racing as a sophomore. And so the debate about dosage, the Experimental Handicap and seasoning ensues.

“People like lists and rankings, and horse people are no different,” said Cooney, who Curran lauds as the “Human Fact Machine.” But no fact will ever get in the way of a horse destined to win a race, even if it’s a race steeped in history. A horse that’s a man, not a boy, will negotiate the Derby’s demanding challenges. How handicappers determine which horse that is…well, that’s their business.

“Discussion and debate is healthy,” Cooney added. “That’s what the Experimental gives the sport.”  By anybody’s measure, that’s a sounder reason than tradition for The Jockey Club to keep its handicapping calculus alive.

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