Vic Zast

CHICAGO - Like the practice of wearing a necktie in the clubhouse, some of horse racing’s oldest affectations are unraveling. 

Breeders’ Cup day is making the Eclipse Awards redundant. Horses worthy of running in rich 4-year-old stakes are becoming an endangered species. Is the sport, as we’ve known it, on the brink of devolution, or is it merely entering an uncomfortably new phase? 

Recently, the 2007 Experimental Free Handicap made its way out of mothballs, and it’s a little hard for some people to take it seriously. 

Walter S. Vosburgh, official handicapper for The Jockey Club and various racetracks from 1894 to 1933, produced the first Experimental Handicap in his last year on the job.  With the exception of 1934, the list has been compiled every January.

Nowadays The Jockey Club asks three racing secretaries from different parts of the country to produce a weighting for a theoretical 1 1/16 mile dirt race among the previous year’s top 2-year-olds.  Somehow, this is supposed to give handicappers an idea of how they’re going to perform at 3.

“It’s hard to know precisely who is using the Experimental and how they’re using it,” said Bob Curran, vice president of corporate communications for The Jockey Club. “But each winter we get calls, letters and e-mails asking when it’s coming out.” Despite a notion elsewhere that the Experimental has entered the realm of the extraneous, Curran believes The Jockey Club will continue the compilation.

‘A lot of tradition behind it’
“I think there’s a lot of tradition behind it,” said John Cooney, Curran’s colleague, conjuring up an oh-so-familiar explanation. Tradition is used for explaining irrelevance in the racing industry. Despite a recent drought of success in the Kentucky Derby for horses that head the Experimental and possess a pedigree for stamina, Cooney hedged his lame pronouncement with this: “It has a lot of value to handicappers, especially those who believe in “dual qualifiers.”

Life’s too short to explain the complicated definition of a dual qualifier, but suffice it to say that Street Sense was one of them. The son of Street Cry was the first Derby winner since 1997 from the passel of top weighted Experimental horses possessing a Dosage Index of 4.00 and below.  Eight dual qualifiers started in the 2007 edition, and, yet, only one hit the board.  On the other hand, nine out of the first 10 finishers complied with the requirement of the 4.00 DI.

By definition, the dosage index (DI) is a pedigree-based analysis of distance ability. Dr. Steven A. Roman, the theory’s strongest proponent, holds that an index higher than 4.00 restricts horses from running effectively for 1 ¼ miles, the distance of America’s greatest race.  Following the 2004 Derby, Roman told the Thoroughbred Times, “Considering the inexorable infusion of speed into pedigrees today, Giacomo (DI of 4.33) may well be the modern-day version of the dual qualifier.” But since then, Roman has resisted making an official change in the standard.

Nevertheless, on Roman’s Web site — chef-de-race.com — he writes profusely that contemporary conditions pertaining to the breeding and racing of the modern thoroughbred might require an adjustment in areas such as the DI maximum and the number of pounds that qualifies horses as dual qualifiers, as well as the racing history of horses that appear on the Experimental Handicap. His suggested accommodations are no doubt a conclusion from the last couple of decades.

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Prior to 1988, it was almost a sure thing that a dual qualifier would win the Derby.  As a matter of fact, there were 15 straight dual qualifiers in a row that won, including such long shots as Ferdinand ($37.50) and Gato del Sol ($44.40). Not one Derby winner from 1929 to 1990 had a DI over 4.00. That explains why there should be at least mild curiosity about the Experimental and dosage index for this year’s crop.

Eight colts, six fillies make the cut
Eight colts and six fillies on the 2007 Experimental Free Handicap are dual qualifiers. At 120 pounds on the Experimental for colts are Dixie Chatter (3.00) and Into Mischief (1.60).  At 119, are Court Vision (3.67), Georgie Boy (1.67) and Wicked Style (3.00).  Kodiak Kowboy (2.00), Majestic Warrior (3.00) and Tale of Ekati (2.00) are weighted at 118. 

The six dual qualifying fillies include one Kentucky Derby possibility: Country Star (2.08) at 121 pounds is two pounds below the high-weighted filly, Indian Blessing (3.00) on the distaff scale.

Of particular note, two of the most highly regarded contenders, War Pass, the Experimental high-weight among colts at 127, has a DI of 4.09, and Pyro, at 120, taps in at 4.14. If the dual qualifier method is to be believed, you might as well scratch these stamina-lacking crop leaders from your list of future book wagers now.

On the other hand, what might be affecting the recent influence of the dual qualifier system more than dosage is what it takes to be weight listed on the Experimental.  Only horses that placed one through four in a graded stake or an unrestricted stake with a purse of $75,000 or more are eligible. As horses are being raced less frequently than ever, some trainers seem content to wait longer for their best 2-year-old runners to mature.