Steve Silverman

There is joy in Mudville ... um … San Diego. The Chargers have won a playoff game.

For the first time since their improbable 1994 run to the Super Bowl, the Chargers have won a playoff game. That team had Stan “The Man” Humphries at quarterback and Natrone Means at running back. This team has Philip Rivers and LaDainian Tomlinson leading the way.

And now, they face the Colts.

With a 23-21 victory over Indianapolis earlier this season, the Chargers should feel confident. But unless Rivers gets a dose of maturity and inherits a big-league arm in the next seven days, the Chargers will once again see their season come to a brutal end.

The Chargers’ wild-card win over Tennessee was no thing of beauty. They merely outlasted the undermanned Titans. The real Chargers got blanked in the first half. The scatter-armed Rivers did a good job of getting upset with teammates who may or may not have run the correct routes, but he failed to deliver the ball with the kind of zip that will be needed to beat the Colts.

Rivers’ numbers were respectable, and he some decent throws in the second half when the Chargers were able to finally get going, but that is just not going to work against the Colts.

Especially the rested Colts.

Indianapolis should be able to get all the kinks out of their system against the Chargers in order to get ready for Round 2 against the Patriots. Don’t let any of the well-rehearsed players in New England and Indianapolis tell you they are not looking forward to meeting in the AFC Championship. That's what ultimately weighs on their minds.

Both teams could lose by making mistakes, but neither will get outplayed in their divisional games.

That’s not really a knock on the Chargers or the Jaguars. Indianapolis and New England are simply more talented, more experienced and more dominant.

The Chargers had a much better chance of reaching the promised land a year ago, when they had homefield advantage over the Patriots and Marty Schottenheimer at head coach. However, New England found a way to win on the road — on a team didn’t have Randy Moss, Wes Welker or Adalius Thomas.

And the Colts have nearly as many weapons as the Patriots. Peyton Manning has a 4-game postseason winning streak. Not only does he have Reggie Wayne coming off his best season (104 catches for 1,510 yards and 10 TDs), Manning’s favorite receiver should be back. Marvin Harrison hasn’t played since a mid-October win at Jacksonville because of a bruised knee, but should be ready to go. Throw in tight ends Dallas Clark and Ben Utecht, along with rookie wideout Anthony Gonzalez and Manning has six reliable targets.

They're almost as good on the ground.

Running back Joseph Addai punched out 1,072 yards and 12 touchdowns despite missing one game and sitting out most of the final two games. He can take the pressure off Manning and the passing game. The Chargers are vulnerable in that area, ranking 17^th in yards allowed per rush.

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The Chargers shouldn't count on Manning repeating his 6-interception meltdown he had against them in mid-November. Indianapolis was coming off its titanic matchup with New England, and Manning's mindset will be different for this game.

The Colts have the embarrassing loss to the Chargers burned into their minds. Manning will come out firing and the Colts will be able to move the ball on a San Diego defense that is not perfect.

The Chargers may lead the league with 48 forced turnovers, but their safeties, Marlon McCree and Clinton Hart, are a step slow in coverage and late-arriving on running plays. Missed tackles are often the result.

Conversely, the Colts will not cower when they take the field against Tomlinson. The Colts were third in the league in run defense. The Titans focused their defense on stopping Tomlinson and held him to 42 yards. The Colts may be able to come close to matching that figure.

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What about tight end Antonio Gates, who suffered a badly sprained big toe against Tennessee? Even if he can line up against the Colts, he won’t be able to push off and get up the seam quickly. That puts added pressure on Rivers, which doesn't bode well for San Diego.

Chargers coach Norv Turner is a decent strategist, but he lacks some of the other necessities when it comes to being great, such as inspiring his players. It wasn’t in Washington or Oakland and there’s nothing to indicate that it has gotten any better in San Diego.

Tony Dungy has no such weakness. He's guided the Colts to an NFL title last season, won at least 12 games in five straight seasons, and built the Tampa Bay team that Jon Gruden guided to Super Bowl XXXVII.

The Colts are too strong, too healthy and are playing at home. They won’t let their opportunity to punch their ticket to New England slip through their grasp.

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