New York at Dallas
Time: Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET

Players to watch
Giants

Al Messerschmidt / Getty Images Giants quarterback Eli Manning.

Quarterback Eli Manning came up big in the Giants’ wild-card win over the Bucs, and he’s going to have to do it again if the Giants are going to be able to beat the Cowboys after two regular-season losses. He’ll be relying on wideout Amani Toomer in critical situations. His other receiver, Plaxico Burress, can change the game with his size and leaping ability. The defensive front, led by ends Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora are going to have to put sustained pressure on Dallas QB Tony Romo. Cornerbacks Corey Webster and R.W. McQuarters are going to have to come up big again as they did against Tampa, especially if Terrell Owens can play.

Cowboys
Glamour-boy quarterback Tony Romo has struggled down the stretch and he’s going to have to get it all together to beat a Giants team that could make his life miserable. In two wins during the regular season over New York, he threw for nearly 600 yards and eight touchdowns. His job will be easier if receiver Terrell Owens, who had four of those TDs, recovers from the ankle sprain that sidelined him during the last game of the regular season. You figure T.O. will play if at all possible, but he has to be effective to give the Cowboys an edge. Look to see if power back Marion Barber gets off early. Tight end Jason Witten also is a major piece of the attack. Defensively, the big horses are two Pro Bowlers — outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware, who leads the pass rush, and safety Roy Williams. In a tight game, rookie Pro Bowl kicker Nick Folk could be the difference.

The Giants win if
During both regular season wins, the Giants played the Cowboys even — for a half. In the second half, they let Romo and Owens beat them. That has to change, and the Giants defensive front has to first stop the run and then keep heavy pressure on Romo. If they can get to him early and keep after him late, the Giants offense should take care of itself.

The Cowboys win if

N.Y. Giants 21, Dallas 17 Giants stun Cowboys, reach title game  |  Video Opinion: N.Y. punches Dallas 'in the mouth' Celizic: Rushing attacks key in title game Phillips let team fall apart  |  Flutie Curse lives! Manning, defense help Giant's avoid 3-peat Tearful T.O. defends Romo after loss  |    Video Opinion: Romo left to explain trip over offseason Where’s Jessica Simpson? Not in Dallas   Sound off: Discuss the game Team pages:  Cowboys  |  Giants

The Buccaneers tried to stuff the Giants’ running game and put the pressure on Manning. Neither occured. But that’s the formula for beating New York — make Manning do it and don’t give him the time to pick up his receivers. If the Cowboys can do what Tampa couldn’t in the wild-card game, they should win.

The Giants lose if
New York has to play pretty much an error-free game. If Manning gets rattled and throws two or three interceptions, their chances of victory decline dramatically. Their chances will be reduced to zero if they don’t contain the Cowboys’ running game.

The Cowboys lose if

Tony Gutierrez / AP Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo.

A lot may depend on who can suit up for the game. They really need Owens at 80 percent or better. If he can’t go and the offensive line can’t open holes for the Dallas running game, Dallas will lose.

Prediction
They say it’s hard to beat a team three times in one season, but that’s what the Cowboys have to do. They’re a bit battered and they haven’t played well down the stretch. Romo may be more of a question mark going into the game than Manning. And the Giants are playing with more confidence than at any time in years. Dallas is also a better venue for Manning than New York, where he dislikes playing in winter weather. Dallas hasn’t won a playoff game in more than a decade. I think they’re going to add to that streak in an upset that will make Big D a very unhappy town. Giants 34, Cowboys 30.

Don't miss this on MSNBC.com Pass it on: Sons of infertile men may be next The eight biggest Olympic marketing debacles Reality show judges range from wise to wacko Cosmic Log: Is this your jetpack? Forget your inhibitions: World's sexiest islands

MORE FROM NFL

NFL Section Front

Romo's on the rise Eagles-Bears matchup will remain Sunday night game Steelers shut down Broncos’ offense for big win PFT: Steelers set stage for showdown vs. Bengals PFT: Rest of league is catching up to Broncos PFT: Tomlinson hints at retiring after this season PFT: Ex-Packer Brown rips McCArthy PFT: Quinn reportedly will start for Browns again PFT: Still no takers for ex-Chief Larry Johnson PFT: Larry Johnson denies he has anger issues NFL Section Front   Add NFL headlines to your news reader: