John Pricci

Turf writers in desperate search of a story know two things: go see Wayne Lukas; go see Nick Zito, not necessarily in that order. Both, after all, are extremely quotable and each knows the value of keeping their brands in front of the public (read prospective owners).

Turf writers know a third thing. Bereft of storylines when on deadline, think two words: Kentucky Derby.

In that spirit, a forward look at certain-to-be juvenile champion War Pass; Remsen hero Court Vision, a courageous and classy 9-furlong winner, and Denis of Cork, one of the more impressive debut winners ever.

While the measure of dosage index is no longer in vogue as a predictor of Derby form, it still has some merit. So, as an aside, let's take an early look at some dosage profiles as outlined by column contributor Brad Morgan.

Morgan reviewed the dosage profiles of 37 newly turned 3-year-olds. Of those, only six had as many as two points in either its Solid or Professional wing. Meaning, according to dosage theory, they’re light on the stamina side of their pedigree.

Considering the current state of the breeding industry, is it any wonder that this small sample of relatively high class individuals reflects that the majority of American racehorses are bred for speed?

Interestingly, three of the six stamina-influenced sophomores are fillies.

Of greater significance, though, were the names of several highly regarded Triple Crown hopefuls, all of which impressed on the racetrack as 2-year-olds:

• El Gato Malo, undefeated in two starts, including the two-turn Gold Rush at Golden Gate Fields, has a dosage index of 4.33.
• Etched, undefeated in two starts by a combined 13-¼ lengths, including the G3 Nashua, has a dosage index of 4.14.
• Gayego, a maiden breaker by three lengths in 1:09 over Hollywood’s Cushion Track, has a dosage index of 4.33.
• Pyro, the strong-finish runner-up to War Pass in both the Grade 1 Champagne and Juvenile, has a dosage of 4.14.
• Sea of Pleasure, 2-for-2, including a preliminary allowance win in 1:08 3/5 at Hollywood Park, checks in with a 4.33.
• And, finally, War Pass, four for four in high, championship style but with a dosage index of 4.09, slightly over the desired measure of 4.0 or lower.

The knock one hears most often, however, is that he may not be rate-able. Even Zito admitted last year that you have to let him do what he wants to do, when he wants to do it.

But that’s where the knocks end. In four starts, he never has taken a backward step on the Equiform performance-figure scale. He came out running fast then came back and ran even faster, earning an Equiform figure of 74.25. He followed that up with a 76.25 in the Champagne, moving up in class and distance, before earning a breathtaking 79.25 in the Juvenile.

Only jinx-busting Street Sense ran that fast at 2 in the modern era, albeit earning his figure over a dry Churchill surface.

Horses that never take a backward step are impossible to knock. But since every rule has an exception, here‘s one: too much; too soon. Going from a 71.75 to 79.25 in three months is substantial development.

Developmentally, Court Vision did nothing wrong in his four starts, either. His figures improved from start one to start three, coming out running while showing good energy distribution, improving in his second start to break maiden, then moving forward again to win the G3 Iroquois mile at Churchill Downs.

But his Remsen was something else altogether. Termed a soft win because the pace and final time were slower than his Iroquois score, his trip and subsequent victory was anything but soft.