Mike Celizic

Michael Vick may get another shot at the NFL if only because there’s always a team desperate enough or a personnel director who thinks he’s clever enough to take a chance on damaged goods. But his days as a superstar quarterback are almost certainly finished.

He could, if he can convince his ego to readjust its sights, have a shot as a running back or receiver. His legs will be in better shape than his quarterback skills. But as for being a superstar of any sort, it’s a long shot.

He’ll spend at least 18 months behind bars according to ESPN, although this column’s chief legal correspondent, Michael Gilberti of Red Bank, N.J., tells me he’ll probably have to serve 21 of the 23 months to which he was sentenced on Monday. That depends, of course, on whether his lawyers can convince prosecutors in Virginia to run any sentence he may earn in a separate case in that state concurrently with his federal sentence.

Any way you parse it, two more NFL seasons will pass before Vick can again play football. He’s already missed this year, so that will make him a 30-year-old ex-felon when he can finally apply for employment again.

After three years away from the game during which he’ll have plenty of time to work out in the weight room but not a lot of opportunity to keep his pocket skills sharp, you have to figure his value as a quarterback will be minimal. There were questions about his future as a quarterback before he was indicted on the dog-fighting charges that led him to trade his designer suits for a black-and-white-striped prison jumpsuit. Three years of enforced idleness won’t increase his value.

He was in decline when the indictment landed, his completion percentage declining from a career-high 56 percent in 2004 to 55 percent in 2005 and 53 percent in 2006. In none of those three years did he reach 2,500 yards passing, a number that top passers achieve in 10 games or less.

As his passing declined, so did the Falcons’ results, from 11-5 in 2004 to 8-8 in 2005 to 7-9 in 2006. This is not the direction a team expects to be going when it has a quarterback who is supposed to be maturing in his job.

Another problem is that Vick’s greatest value as a quarterback is in Atlanta, where fans so adored him they were willing to ignore his shortcomings. In 2010, after three years of learning to live without Vick, it’s unlikely the Falcons will want to go back to him; they should have their quarterback of the future by then.

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The interest of any other team is almost certainly to be as a back-up, and it’s impossible to think of him coming back in any other capacity. Three years is a lot of time off, and there’s the fan backlash from employing a convicted dog abuser in a role as a starting quarterback. It’s just too much to deal with for a team that expects to win. A team would have to be really, really desperate to even think about bringing him back as a starter in 2010.

That’s why his best bet to wring some much-needed cash out of his remaining physical talent would be to start thinking now about how much fun it would be to come back as either a running back or a wide receiver. Running is what he does best – although not from the law. In 2006, his worst year as a passer, he had his best year as a rusher, collecting 1,039 yards on just 123 carries – a tidy average of 8.4 yards per carry. Compare that to the 6.4 yards per pass attempt he had, and you’ve got an idea of where his talents lie.

Slide show Michael Vick's case in cartoons Top cartoonists around the nation weigh in on the Vick situation. msnbc.com

What he’s going to find, though, is that he will need the NFL and the potential for a few more big paychecks to pay all the bills he’s been collecting than the NFL will need him. Even the greatest players in the game find that once they go down for a while, the team and the game goes on without them.

If you come back after a year, you’ll be welcomed back. But after three years away from the game for any reason, you’ll find the game has learned to live without you. And Vick isn’t coming back from injury, but from a crime that is revolting to most people.

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Getting back in the league isn’t going to be as easy as showing up and saying, “I’m here.” He’ll probably have to beg just to get a free-agent try-out. And then, no matter what position he decides to play, he’ll have to show what’s left of his future has greater potential than that of a kid just coming out of college in the draft.

He was a superstar, but that’s over, and he’d better start accepting it now. He’ll try to come back; we know that. But if he thinks he’s going to be handed a team to lead as a quarterback, he’s sadly mistaken. Those days, for Vick, are over.

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