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Cabrera, Willis put Tigers among elite teams

By surrendering top prospects, Detroit gambling payoff will be World Series

Image: Dontrelle Willis, Miguel Cabrera
By acquiring Miguel Cabrera, left, and Dontrelle Willis from the Marlins, the Tigers have joined the elite teams, writes msnbc.com contributor Tony DeMarco.
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OPINION
By Tony DeMarco
NBCSports.com contributor
updated 4:42 p.m. ET Dec. 5, 2007

Tony DeMarco
The Detroit Tigers have stolen the winter meetings — and put themselves back among the American League elite in the process.

Where the Los Angeles Angels wouldn’t dare go in talks about Miguel Cabrera, where the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox haven’t yet gone in talks about Johan Santana, the Tigers boldly stepped in getting both Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis in an eight-player trade with the Florida Marlins.

The risk for the Tigers is stripping a productive farm system for the near future. The reward is dramatically improving their chances of capitalizing on a two-year window of opportunity for their aging roster to win the World Series that eluded them in 2006. And after a disappointing second-half fade in 2007, that is exactly what was needed.

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Make no mistake, the Tigers are going for it all, and if you want to do that in the American League, you have to be willing to gamble. Even if it means surrendering two of arguably the best 10 prospects in baseball in left-hander pitcher Andrew Miller and outfielder Cameron Maybin — along with backup catcher Mike Rabelo and three more pitching prospects.

When you throw in an earlier deal for Edgar Renteria, in which Detroit gave Atlanta pitcher Jair Jurrjens and outfielder Gorkys Hernandez, the Tigers have dealt away six of their 10 top prospects this winter. But before you dismiss this as a totally risky proposition that will come back to bite them in the next decade, consider the following:

Cabrera, already one of the game’s premier hitters, won’t turn 25 until next April. This is a .313 career hitter who averages 32 homers and 125 RBIs, and he is just about to reach his peak production years, even though he is two years away from free agency. Assuming the Tigers sign him before he hits the market, they could have him in the middle of their lineup for the foreseeable future.

Two more plusses are that Cabrera will have the positive influences of fellow Venezuelans Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen in the clubhouse, and Cabrera already is addressing weight and conditioning issues that dogged him last season by undergoing a rigorous off-season training program.

Willis suffered through a down 2007, but he won’t turn 26 until next month, and is an innings horse who undoubtedly will benefit from having an explosive offense behind him, plus the spacious left and center fields in Comerica Park.

Even after going 10-15 with a 5.17 ERA last season, Willis’ career numbers sit at 68-54-3.78 — how many left-handers can say that? — and he remains one of the game’s most-charismatic figures. And don’t underestimate the significance of the Tigers having an African-American star in Detroit, where attendance already was at an all-time high in 2007.

Willis can become a free agent after next season, but owner Mike Ilitch, now in his 70s and still pining for a championship, has opened the vault. The payroll should move from about $95 million to $110 million-plus for 2008, and deals for Kenny Rogers, Todd Jones and Ivan Rodriguez will expire after next season, freeing up money to re-sign Willis.

And best of all, here is one potential combination that notorious lineup juggler Jim Leyland could use:

  • 1. Curtis Granderson, CF
  • 2. Placido Polanco, 2B
  • 3. Miguel Cabrera, 3B
  • 4. Magglio Ordonez, RF
  • 5. Gary Sheffield, DH
  • 6. Carlos Guillen, 1B
  • 7. Ivan Rodriguez, C
  • 8. Jacque Jones/Marcus Thames, LF
  • 9. Edgar Renteria, SS

In 2007, that group included five .300 hitters, four who went .320 or better, two who accumulated at least 200 hits, six who totaled at least 30 doubles, three who scored 105 or more runs, five who hit at least 20 homers, three who drove in 100-plus runs, and five who had .500-plus slugging percentages.

And that’s right, Renteria, who hit .332 last season with Atlanta, could hit as low as ninth. You could push Guillen up a spot to break up the run of right-handed power hitters, but any way you write it one-through-nine, this is a lineup that health permitting, is as potent as Boston’s or New York’s.

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And if the Tigers get to a seven-game playoff series, wouldn’t you like your chances with Justin Verlander, Willis, Jeremy Bonderman and Rogers or Nate Robertson against anybody else’s rotation?

There still is a bullpen to improve, especially with the loss of Joel Zumaya. But the Tigers could deal third baseman Brandon Inge for help there. Or, there remains a possibility that Inge or Cabrera could move to left field, and still another that Cabrera moves to first, and Guillen to third.

Whatever way it shakes out, the Tigers are loaded for a fight for AL Central supremacy with Cleveland, and for an AL pennant with Boston, New York and the Angels.

Tony DeMarco writes regularly for msnbc.com and is a freelance writer based in Denver.

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