Dan Pompei

It seems like the Jaguars season often comes down to whether they can get by the Colts.

If they can defeat their AFC South rival Sunday, the Jaguars will be 9-3, just like the Colts. Though the Colts still would have a tiebreaker advantage because of their superior record in the division, the Jaguars would at least give themselves a chance of winning the division, and maybe even hosting the Colts in a playoff game.

If they can’t defeat the Colts, the Jaguars will be 8-4 and looking at a long wildcard road in the playoffs.

The Colts beat the Jaguars 29-7 earlier this year and have won four of five games between the teams, but a few things have changed since their last meeting.

The Colts are banged up. Indy defensive end Dwight Freeney, who now is on injured reserve, was the dominant player in that game with two sacks, two forced fumbles and a safety. The Colts have lost two of their last four, and clearly are not clicking like they were in October.

The Jaguars, meanwhile, figure to have David Garrard throwing more than 12 passes in this game. In the first meeting, Garrard left the game in the second quarter with an ankle injury. His replacement Quinn Gray threw two interceptions.

Garrard has not thrown a single interception this season in 209 attempts — which really is one of the most remarkable accomplishments of the NFL season thus far. And it’s not as if Garrard is just dumping the ball off or being overly cautious with his throws. On Sunday in the Jags’ victory over the Bills he threw for a career high 296 yards. He is averaging 7.8 yards per attempt, which ranks seventh in the NFL. His 103.1 passer rating ranks him fourth in the NFL, behind only Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger and Tony Romo, and yes, well ahead of Peyton Manning.

Garrard has not made plays that have cost the Jaguars games. And the only other quarterback who might be able to say that is Brady.

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So it should be safe to assume the Jaguars can hang with the Colts this time. If they can come up with a few critical plays late in the game, they could even beat them.

They will not be able to run wild on Indy the way they did last December, when the Jaguars hung 44 points and 375 rushing yards on the Colts. The Colts run defense now ranks 11^th in the NFL in average per rush allowed and 16^th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game compared with 30^th and 31^st in the same categories last year at this time.

What that means is the Jaguars will need big plays from Garrard to win. So this game really is set up as Garrard’s potential coming out party. This is Garrard’s now — his moment to be all he can be. Despite how well he has played this season, he has been completely under the radar. Beating the Colts would open a lot of eyes.

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It also would justify coach Jack Del Rio’s decision to cut Byron Leftwich, right before the season opener and go with Garrard. If the Jaguars ever are going to break through to the next level instead of being just a good team, they’ll need for Garrard to lead the charge.

As a sixth-year veteran, Garrard no longer can lean on the crutch of inexperience. Though he has spent most of his career carrying the clipboard, the former fourth round pick has 26 career starts.

Garrard has much to play for. The Jaguars season will be decided in the next few games, and Garrard’s future can be as well. His contract expires after next year. If Garrard continues to play as he has been, it’s likely the Jaguars will try to lock him up with an extension before next season begins. If he wets his uniform, it’s possible the Jaguars will acquire another quarterback in the offseason who will threaten Garrard’s security.

If the Jaguars aren’t good enough to defeat the Colts with Garrard under center on Sunday, they will have to ask themselves if they ever will be.

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