College football

BCS could spell bad news for Oregon, Hawaii

It looks good now, but both teams may need help to achieve current goal

Hawaii is taking flak for a schedule that includes two Football Championship Subdivision teams, formerly known as Division I-AA. Hawaii’s first nine opponents have a combined .259 winning percentage.

“You’ve got to understand that this team has played the worst schedule in the 10-year history of the BCS, by a lot,” said BCS analyst Jerry Palm, who runs the collegebcs.com Web site from Indiana. “I look at this team and I think, they’re no better than seventh or eighth in the Big Ten.”

WAC commissioner Karl Benson takes issue with that. He said the schedule isn’t Hawaii’s fault; the Warriors lost a date with Michigan State and ended up filling it with a second lower-division opponent.

“They offered to play games on the mainland,” he said. “They offered to play at Michigan, at Indiana. They were willing to go on the road to fill a game.”

Tell that to the computers.

Palm said the Warriors can expect a bump in the computers if they beat 5-4 Nevada (that’s their record, not their height) and 9-1 Boise State. But the computers may hold their noses when Hawaii meets 3-7 Washington, its lone BCS-level opponent.

If Hawaii wins out, Palm gives the Warriors “better than a 50-50 shot” of finishing in the BCS Top 12, which would mean a guaranteed BCS berth, probably in the Sugar Bowl, for Colt Brennan and Co.

Oregon’s chances of reaching the title game may be better than 50-50. Or they may not. Nobody can say for sure.

All we know about the BCS is that we never know about the BCS.

Andrew Bagnato covers college football for The Associated Press. Write to him at abagnato(at)ap.org.

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