APThe hottest number in baseball’s Hot Stove season: $6 billion. As in, revenue generated in 2007, as in $2 billion more than was generated three years ago, as in almost as much as the mighty NFL.
So when superagent Scott Boras goes to hoodwink another general manager in the coming weeks, you can be sure everyone in the room will know how healthy the sport is financially.
Too bad the free-agent pool isn’t as robust. Sure, Boras’ prized client, Alex Rodriguez, is available, but only if you’re willing to pay $30 million or so for the next 10 years or so. There also are several solid outfielders for sale, but there’s not much more. The pool of available pitchers is especially thin.
This lack of quality free agents is bound to lead to much trade discussion. But trading affordable up-and-comers for impact veterans has become as risky as a $300 million deal for one player.
The 2008 season will be shaped significantly by what happens in the coming days and weeks, and these players and baseball men will do much of the shaping.
THE QUESTION: ANDRUW JONESAround the first day of summer, an exec was asked how Andruw Jones’ value as a free agent would change if he were to hit .199 all season. The exec chuckled before saying there was no way Jones would finish the year hitting .199.
The exec was right. Jones got his average all the way up to .222 by season’s end. But that .222 will make the job of his agent, Scott Boras, more difficult than if Jones had finished nearer his career average of .263.
Early talk about Jones’ worth varies as much as the scouting reports on his game . One school of thought: Jones, 30, remains one of the greatest defensive center fielders ever . He compensates for his loss of speed with superior positioning, and despite that low average, he still hit 26 homers. Another school: Jones is steadily declining in the field and at the plate, where he has lost bat speed, and he’s showing too much of an all-or-nothing attitude.
Will Jones land a long-term deal worth more than $10 million per? Will he have to accept a one-year contract to reestablish his value? Will he settle for something in between?
This much is known: The Braves have made it clear what they think. Shortly after the season , they told Jones that they no longer were interested.
— Stan McNeal
THE FRANCHISE: ALEX RODRIGUEZThe notion of signing him was met with shrugs and a series of “Not me” responses. Free-agent third baseman Alex Rodriguez, crowned lord of this offseason after opting out of the final three years of his contract with the Yankees, will play somewhere next season. He is, after all, a franchise player, an MVP, a certain Hall of Famer and, possibly, the future home run king. If his agent, Scott Boras, has his way, A-Rod will make more than $30 million per year to play somewhere. But almost every general manager insists his organization has no interest in shelling out for A-Rod.
Red Sox? No, they’re focused on re-signing Mike Lowell. Mets? They have David Wright at third, thank you very much. Tigers? Nope, they just traded for shortstop Edgar Renteria. Dodgers? Possible, but they’ve yet to speak with Boras. Angels? They’ve kicked the tires, but it’s unlikely their payroll could handle two megacontracts (they’ll need to extend Vladimir Guerrero). Cubs? Makes sense, but the team is for sale. Marlins, Mariners, Giants? Yeah, right.
The strategy, it seems, will be patience. There is likely to be little movement on Rodriguez, at least until the winter meetings next month. That gives Boras time to lay the groundwork for a contract. One executive says, “Once more teams see how Scott wants to structure the deal, in terms of deferred salary and things like that, it might make the whole thing seem less imposing.”
In the meantime, straight answers on Rodriguez will be hard to come by.
— Sean Deveney
THE HUNTED: TORII HUNTERTorii Hunter is far from the perfect ballplayer. He swings at the first pitch too often, doesn’t walk enough and strikes out too much.
But he is the best center fielder—and perhaps the most desirable player—on the market because he hits for power and catches just about every fly ball that comes into his area code. He’s also a positive clubhouse influence and a great ambassador for the game.
The question is not if Hunter will land at least a five-year, $75 million deal—it’s who will give it to him .
Not likely: the Twins, the only team the 32-year-old Hunter has played for. They offered three years, $45 million during the second half, and Hunter said no.
Possibly: the Yankees. They already have Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Bobby Abreu and Melky Cabrera in the outfield. They also have a ton of money, and Hunter has said he wouldn’t mind playing under the bright lights.
Likely: the Rangers. Hunter has a home in the Dallas area, and the Rangers have the financial wherewithal and a need for an impact center fielder.
— S.M.
THE TRADING CHIP: COCO CRISPIt would be foolish for Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein to say, “We’ve got Jacoby Ellsbury, so we can’t wait to get rid of Coco Crisp.”
Epstein is simply following normal operating procedure when he insists the late-season emergence of Ellsbury in center field doesn’t make Crisp expendable. Epstein says Crisp could be a contributing player even with Ellsbury on the roster.
Still, it’s hard to imagine the Red Sox paying $10.5 million over the next two seasons for what would amount to a caddie for left fielder Manny Ramirez.
It’s harder to imagine Epstein not taking advantage of the huge demand for center fielders. There will be teams left empty-handed when free agents Torii Hunter, Aaron Rowand, Andruw Jones and Mike Cameron come off the market. Epstein will be there to offer Crisp as a consolation prize .
Though he has regressed at the plate in his two seasons in Boston, Crisp still plays top-notch defense; his running catch for the final out of the ALCS was a tremendous play. Given the need for center fielders, there will be interest in Crisp.
— Gerry Fraley
SportsTalk: Albert Pujols signs with the Angels and Prince Fielder joins the Tigers. Which team is better now?
DeMarco: Plug in a well-heeled ownership group and negotiate one of those mega-bucks TV deals that are going around, and the Dodgers could become the west coast version of the New York Yankees or Boston Red Sox.
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