Sam Smith

Sure, it's early in the 2007-08 NBA season, which means it's time to start making declarations. OK, perhaps a few predictions or observations.

So whom should you be watching, players who are ready to break through?

For me, No. 1 is Kevin Garnett.

What? But he's already been the league's Most Valuable Player. Indeed, but there's always been a question about whether Garnett is a winner. There were all those first round playoff exits. After all, if he's so good, how could his team not even have won a playoff round his first eight seasons in the NBA?

And then there's been the last three, all failures to even qualify for the playoffs, which is no easy feat in the NBA, where more than half the teams still make the playoffs. And this in the three seasons after winning the MVP. It's unprecedented. And Garnett seemingly happy to remain in Minnesota. It seemed even when he finally was traded, he had been willing to re-sign in Minnesota. We saw the fire in his play. But where was the ultimate desire?

It's there, and it's on display with seemingly a very good Boston Celtics team. It's what Garnett needed. Yes, it's early. And they're not deep. And everyone needs to stay healthy. If, if, if…But with Ray Allen and Paul Pierce, Garnett finally is in the perfect role as the guy who takes you to the threshold and lets someone else carry you across. The Celtics have a chance to be very good, to be in the NBA Finals, and then Garnett finally will have broken through as a winner and not just a talent.

As for the guys who are on the verge of becoming stars, I'll start with LaMarcus Aldridge.

He's my choice for Most Improved Player. Portland got a bad break with Greg Oden's injury, and the play of Kevin Durant has to be making them sweat. But Aldridge looks like a legitimate low post threat and it was a heck of a move to trade up in the 2006 draft to get him. Though not a great rebounder as he fills out, Aldridge has a nice soft touch and good feel already around the basket. Assuming Oden returns to be that defensive presence, it could be an awesome frontcourt.

Though Portland is going to hear plenty of the Sam Bowie-Michael Jordan talk before then. Did they take the wrong guy?

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That was 1984, of course, when with Clyde Drexler and Jim Paxson, the Trail Blazers, in the home of Nike, passed on Air Jordan for the perennially injured Bowie. Deja vu all over again? You don't pass on the next potentially great center, which no one thought Bowie would be then. Remember, Hakeem Olajuwon was the consensus No. 1 pick and the Bulls were offering the rights to Jordan for him. You generally wouldn't consider a rookie a breakout player. Breakout from what?

But just turning 19, Durant is one of the rare rookies to come along in the NBA. He's aggressive, a trait few rookie have, which means he'll score really big soon. It won't seem to make much difference with a poor SuperSonics team. But he's emerging as one of the special talents in the NBA, a rare 6-9er who can play guard or forward and already is having little trouble with some of the league's best defenders because, well, compared to him they're so little. He's already too quick for the players his size and can just shoot over the quicker, better perimeter defenders.

Maybe the biggest surprise player I've seen so far is the Nets' Antoine Wright.

The swingman, who has been an afterthought in New Jersey his two seasons, has been making big plays down the stretch, shooting the ball and coming up big in wins already late over the Bulls and Hawks. With three major stars in Jason Kidd, Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson, it's almost unimaginable a guy with little resume has been not only put in that position, but performing. You have to watch out for guys like that.

Likewise, there's Danny Granger with the Pacers. The long forward looks like he could be a major beneficiary of being freed from former coach Rick Carlisle's deliberate game. He likes to shoot from long range, perhaps too much, but also is capable of being a versatile performer at 6-8.

An interesting case is Denver's Linas Kleiza. He can be a major weapon, and if he isn't, it's likely Denver doesn't have a very good season. As Linas goes so goes the Nuggets? The reason is Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony have to stop playing my turn, your turn in scoring. If they can find Kleiza — rather if they choose to — Kleiza's going to have a lot of open threes and a chance to put up big numbers. Thus far, Anthony and Iverson have preferred not to, unfortunately.

How about Keith Bogans. Quick, who does he play for?

That's how anonymous Bogans is with his third team in five years and second stint with the Magic. But he's turning J.J. Redick into a worthless draft pick by being a nice complement to Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis with shooting and some dirty work.

Likewise, Renaldo Balkman with the Knicks could have that kind of impact in his willingness to take on top offensive players.

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While there's been a lot of talk about the emergence of the Bulls' Luol Deng, especially in being mentioned as an untouchable in the Kobe Bryant trade rumors, watch out for Andre Iguodala. The 76ers swingman, a more aggressive defender and better athlete than Deng, was almost selected by the Bulls in that same draft as they went for Deng. Iguodala, though with a little thought of team, could be on the verge of a breakthrough as he harnesses his talent.

Al Jefferson was the key in the Garnett trade, so he's supposed to be something. And with little talent with him, he seems a sure double/double almost every game for the Timberwolves. But he was coming on strong the last two months for Boston last season and though trading may not be his specialty, it helps a big man to be around Kevin McHale.

It's time someone on the Atlanta Hawks breaks though, and though he averaged more than 16 per game last season, it seems Josh Smith finally is beginning to harness his talent. He still is a leaper, but also is handling the ball and creating havoc for a Hawks team that has the talent to compete, if not the leadership and maturity.

And though you never know what Don Nelson is going to try next, watch out for Golden State's Kelenna Azubuike, going from then D-league to a potentially prominent role. Things will change some when Stephen Jackson returns from suspension, and Nelson didn't use Azubuike much in the playoff run. But he's the kind of player who could flourish in Nelson's system of play.

Another possibility is Memphis' Rudy Gay, who was Jerry West's last big move, the draft day trade of Shane Battier. Will he justify the faith and belief of one of the league's great executives? He could.