Turf
Current Form: While current condition is paramount, it need not be winning form: Horses repeating a prior victory on Turf day are in the minority, although not be much. Never has the Turf been won by a horse older than 5.

Dosage: The ideal is an index less than 3.0, with at least 2 points in the stamina wings (either solid or professional points).

Key Preps: Turf Classic (best BC results at Belmont Park), Clement Hirsch (none in last eight years), Arc de Triomphe. In the past, also-rans were preferable because the Arc never is easily won and is contested later in the season. The immensely talented Dylan Thomas won this year’s renewal on Oct. 7 and makes his final career start in the Turf. Vexing proposition, that.

Style: As a matter of rote, three-turn routes are rarely won in wire-to-wire fashion. But uncontested speed at this level is especially dangerous. Stalkers are a worthy 14-for-23 in this event. Per usual, race shape and trips will prove the keys.

Spacing: Ideally, the final prep should come 35 days before the event and accompanied by a win or place finish.

Racing Schedule: Although recent winners have been more lightly raced, a five- or six-race campaign has been ideal. Demand a win at 12 furlongs and that the final prep be a quality event at 10 furlongs or farther. The Turf winner must have winning experience at the Grade 1 or Group 1 level.

Post Position: Because of the distance, there is no discernable position bias. As the Europeans will tell you, the key to victory for any turf horse is the condition of the ground. That variable cannot be overstated.

Beyer Scale: Demand 110 or higher, and prefer horses with multiple Beyers of 105 or better. Equiform Scale: 80

Classic
Current Form: Unlike the Turf, a win at the classic distance is not mandatory but, as the name suggests, class is. Over 80 percent of Classic winners won one or more Grade 1 events during the season. Late development is key, whether it be older blue-collar types or 3-year-olds, especially those with Triple Crown experience. No horse older than 5 has ever won the Classic.

Dosage: While the ability to get 10 furlongs successfully is needed on race day, many winners have had speed-oriented pedigrees. Any index below 3.8 is acceptable.

Key Preps: One would infer that traditional Eastern fixtures like the Woodward and Jockey Club Gold Cup would dominate, but that’s not necessarily true. A good horse can come from anywhere, the saying goes, making Santa Anita’s Goodwood and Churchill’s Stephen Foster just as significant.

Style: I’m sure they have run them but I’ve never seen a mile and a quarter race at the Shore. It may be advisable, per usual, to look askance at deep closers. Generally, stalkers from close range have not fared well in this race. But this is, after all, Monmouth Park. Further, the extremely deep and talented field of 2007 is replete with speed, tactical-speed stalkers and deep closers. Something’s got to give.

Spacing: There has been a more favorable relationship between the preps of late August and early September than those of late September and early October. Six weeks has been ideal.

Racing Schedule: No one prep has dominated the Classic results. But note that the campaign of the average Classic winner has been anywhere from four to eight starts.

Post Position: At 10 furlongs, ability, style and race shape trump position.

Beyer Scale: Demand 110 for older horses, 107 for 3-year-olds. However, avoid a new career top in the final prep. A forward-looking performance-figure pattern is most desirable. Many horses earn career tops on Breeders’ Cup day regardless of age, sex or surface. Equiform Scale: 80

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