Sprint
Current Form: Victory in a graded stakes is a must, as is a win at 6 furlongs. The relatively tight turns at Monmouth Park hinder horses breaking from extreme outside positions.

Dosage: Proven ability trumps pedigree.

Key Preps: Ancient Title, Kentucky Cup Sprint, Bay Meadows Sprint Handicap, Summit of Speed Sprint. (Vosburgh winners have been a historical negative. but that is changing since the race was shortened to 6 furlongs.)

Style: Wire and stalker types have been the most successful. Deep closers generally have been a historical negative at 6 furlongs, true almost everywhere. Saving ground at some point is key.

Spacing: Recent sharp performers and classy returnees both have enjoyed a high degree of success. Demand one bullet work and a stamina workout of 6 furlongs or more for horses returning from lengthy layups. As a general rule, the fresher, the better.

Racing Schedule: The ideal campaign has been from four to eight starts during the year. More starts are OK, but these heavily raced types have been more effective in exotic positions.

Post Position: As in all sprints at 6 furlongs, the rail and extreme outside are least desirable. European sprinters generally have done their best racing from outside positions.

Beyer Scale: Demand 109 or higher. Equiform Scale: 80

Mile
Current Form: A horse’s record at the distance is key. Demand multiple wins at one mile on grass during the course of a season. Also demand an ITM finish in a horse’s final prep, at minimum a finish within four lengths of the winner.

Dosage: Ideally, look for an index below 2.85.

Key Preps: Queen Elizabeth II, Prix du Moulin, Oak Tree Mile. While New York’s Kelso Mile produced three Mile winner early on, it has not been a reliable predictor in recent renewals. U.S. runners must come in with a stakes win, preferably graded. Successful Euros must own a Group 1 win, preferably at one mile.

Style: Stalkers and midpack closers dominate all money results. Historically, front-runners going a mile in top company are up against it; best to avoid in win position. Americans have filled many more exotic positions than have the Euros. The most talented miler in either side of the Atlantic usually wins this. The newly installed turf course at Monmouth never has been used in the fall. It figures to be less than firm by U.S. standards but yielding ground here would be considered almost firm by most European standards. 

Spacing: Americans have done best with 21 to 28 days between starts. Europeans, again because of stouter training regimens and facing routinely superior competition, thrive best with layups of 40 to 65 days.

Racing Schedule: Ideally, milers should compete in four to seven races prior to this event. Historically, successful 3-year-olds have had experience vs. older horses.

Post Position: If the speedy Lure could win from post 14 at tight-turned Hollywood Park and Royal Academy can come from last of 13 at Belmont Park, anything goes. Ability, race shape and running style trump position.

Beyer Scale: Demand 109 or higher for older; 105 or more for 3-year-olds. However, it has been best to avoid new career tops. Equiform Scale: 80

Distaff
Current Form: Most Distaff winners have raced within 28 days of this event and proven class is a key. To that end, look for multiple Grade 1 or Group 1 winners. A win at 9 furlongs is key.

Dosage: Look for a stamina oriented pedigree, an index of 4.0 or lower. Two keys to note: the more stamina in the pedigree, the better. Ideally, seek fillies with more points in the Classic Wing than the sum of the Speed, Intermediate, Solid and Professional wings combined.

Key Preps: The Spinster (dominant history), Lady’s Secret. Note that the Beldame has been a historical negative. Due to the installation of Polytrack at Keeneland last fall, its effect on the Distaff is not yet knowable. Empirical evidence has been confusing. While it suggests that it may be best to forgive uncharacteristically poor performances, there is also evidence to indicate that it’s a great surface over which to prep for an upcoming dirt event. This year’s Kentucky Derby exacta of Street Sense and Hard Spun each prepped on different Polytrack surfaces; Keeneland and Turfway Park, respectively.

Style: Both speed types and closers with tactical speed have dominated the results.

Spacing: As stated previously, the majority of winners raced within four weeks.

Racing Schedule: Most winners raced six to eight times during the year. Layup runners should come equipped with at least one bullet move and a workout at 6 furlongs or farther.

Post Position: Since most of the races have come around two turns, positions 9 and wider have been decidedly disadvantaged.

Beyer Scale: Demand 107 and higher for older; 103 or more for 3-year-olds. However, avoid a new career top in final prep. Equiform Scale: 78.5

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