John Pricci

The information contained in the following thumbnail historical sketches of the eight Breeders’ Cup events that have been run before and will be again on Oct. 27 at Monmouth Park does not trump current condition, reason or a horse sitting on an explosive effort. But it’s a good start.

The sketches are meant to separate contenders closely matched in ability and odds. The Cup races are, on balance, the most competitive staged all year. To that end, with input from HRI researcher Brad Morgan, we’ve chosen eight common variables for the purpose of noting the differences in results as determined by surface, age, sex, preparation, etc.

Obviously, there is no data on the three new Breeders’ Cup events to be run Friday, Oct. 26. There figures to be, however, great similarity in respective categories, vis a vis surface, age, sex and prepatory considerations, between the old and new events. Are there commonalities? You decide.

Juvenile Fillies
Current Form: Find the “now” filly, one peaking right on top of the race. Demand an in-the-money (ITM) finish in the final prep race. A winner coming off a career top performance figure is acceptable in this event. 

Dosage: Stamina is an important variable. Prefer fillies with a dosage index of 2.80 or less.

Key Preps: The Frizette, Oak Leaf and Alcibiades. While a win in any of these races is highly desirable, any previous stakes victory is mandatory.

Style: Off-the-pace is the dominant winning style. Race shape favors fillies with kick racing within five lengths of the leader. Remember, of course, that Monmouth Park is generally speed favoring. How that surface plays in the fall at this summertime venue could be another matter. With three days of racing prior to the big dance, there is amply opportunity to go to school on prior results. 

Spacing: An overwhelming majority of winners came off layups from 21 to 28 days. On balance, 2-year-olds of either sex thrive and often improve when racing back on relatively short rest.

Racing Schedule: While juvenile fillies develop more quickly than colts, experience is invaluable. But try to avoid over-raced fillies to win if having six or more starts.

Post Position: Regardless of surface and/or distance, middle posts 4 to 9 have fared best.

Beyer Scale: 95 or higher. Equiform Scale: 75

Juvenile Colts
Current Form: A win or second in final prep is key.

Dosage: Relatively insignificant. Winners generally not as stamina-oriented as Juvenile Filly winner.

Key Preps: Lanes End Futurity, Champagne horses have edge, but any Grade 1 or Group 2 win is highly desirable.   

Style: Midpack runners with kick have enjoyed a tactical advantage.

Spacing: While 21- to 28-day layups are prominent among winners, the recent trend has swelled to 39 days, reflecting popular modern training techniques.

Racing Schedule: Both lightly raced and relatively heavily raced individuals have fared well. Four previous starts seems ideal.

Post Position: Historically, positions from outside post 8 are at a tactical disadvantage in two-turn races.

Beyer Scale: 95 or higher. Look for improving trends, a new top or paired tops are desirable. Demand a jump as horses stretch out from a sprint to a route. Equiform Scale: 77

Filly & Mare Turf
Current Form: The newest Breeders’ Cup race on main event day has been dominated by horses racing in career form. Repeaters have fared very well. Demand a sharp in-the-money finish in the final prep.

Dosage: Prefer stamina oriented pedigrees, an index of 2.80 or lower.

Key Preps: Flower Bowl, Yellow Ribbon.

Style: Extremely difficult to wire the field in three-turn events. High turn of foot runners desirable over grinder types.

Spacing: Optimum layoff for American runners has been 35 days. Europeans, because they race less frequently but trained harder, have responded better with 45 days between starts.

Racing Schedule: Prefer successful shippers over one-circuit/surface performers. Turf success is always predicated on the ability to handle the ground. Course condition is key, more important than proven form at the distance or farther.

Post Position: Routinely meaningless in three-turn events.

Beyer Scale: Insignificant sample size. Equiform Scale: 77.5