APQ: Will the Mets bring in a big-time starter such as Johan Santana for next season after the big collapse?
– David, New York
A: I have to think that leads Omar Minaya’s list of things to do this offseason, David. Tom Glavine quite possibly has pitched his last game as a Met, as he likely will decline a 2008 option. Pedro Martinez and Orlando Hernandez are going to be health risks for the rest of their careers, so that leaves John Maine, Oliver Perez and the young right-handers, Philip Humber and Mike Pelfrey.
As for Santana, 2008 will be the last year of a four-year, $39.5-million deal, and it’s unlikely the Twins will be able to re-sign him. There is no plan to deal him at this point, but Santana already has said he would waive his no-trade clause if the Twins want to go that route.
My guess is it would take two quality young major-leaguers — probably a position player and a pitcher — as well as one more high-level prospect to get Santana. Three teams with that to offer could be the Angels, Dodgers and Diamondbacks. But you never know; maybe the Mets could put something together as well, offering a package including Lastings Milledge, a young starting pitcher and something more.
Q: I would like to ask your opinion about Andruw Jones. Although he did not have a great season average-wise, he still came close to 30 homers and 100 RBI. And he saves more games with his defense than most closers. My question is, will his average this year greatly impact his chances of signing a long-term deal?
— Dominick DeSanza, Marietta, Ga.
A: The Braves quickly came to the conclusion that Andruw won’t be a part of their future, for two primary reasons. One, obviously, is the poor season he had offensively. Not only was his average 40 points off his career mark, but his slugging percentage was alarmingly bad at .413 — .087 below his career mark and .118 below his 2006 number.
And two was the initial contract demands made in mid-season by Andruw’s agent, Scott Boras, which the Braves said there was no way they could meet, even if they wanted to. Those demands weren’t made public, but a long-term deal in the $15-18-million-year range probably is in the ballpark. The Braves figure to put their money into hanging onto Mark Teixeira, and I have to agree with them, if that’s how it turns out.
Everybody has one bad season, but there are other reasons to believe Andruw may be starting a slow decline that would make a long-term deal a risky investment. Scouts say he appears to have slowed a bit in center field — although he still is Gold Glove-caliber out there. He will turn 31 early next season, and never has corrected bad habits at the plate, centered on swinging at breaking pitches away and out of the strike zone.
There also could be a glut of free agents on the market this winter, including Torii Hunter, Aaron Rowand, Jones and Mike Cameron. That obviously creates other options for teams. I still believe Jones will land a very lucrative multi-year deal despite his down 2007 season. But it’s also not out of the realm of possibility — and maybe this will serve him better in the long run — for him to take a one-year deal for 2008, get back to his usual form, and re-enter the market after next season, when there won’t be so many available center fielders.
Q: Who do you think the Yankees should play in left field and use as the designated hitter in the playoffs? Do they have a chance to overcome Cleveland’s strong pitching?
— Joel Moss, Brooklyn, N.Y.
A: Health is at the forefront here, Joel. Apparently, Hideki Matsui’s knee is sore enough that the Yankees feel he shouldn’t be playing the field. But if I’m them, I want Matsui in my lineup as long as he is physically able, so I agree with the decision to use him as the designated hitter.
That removes Jason Giambi’s bat from the lineup, but I think the Yankees are a better team with Johnny Damon in left field, Melky Cabrera in center and Matsui at DH than with Giambi’s bat in there.
Cabrera has established himself as a quality every-day player, and his speed, energy and defense are much-needed on an aging team. Damon belongs in left now, where his arm won’t be as much of a detriment. But he is a big-game player, and I want him in my lineup, too.
I am on record elsewhere on this site as picking the Indians to win this series in five games. More than anything else, I believe dominant starting pitching is the biggest key to postseason success, and the combination of C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona is superior in my mind to Chein-Ming Wang and Andy Pettitte.
SportsTalk: Albert Pujols signs with the Angels and Prince Fielder joins the Tigers. Which team is better now?
DeMarco: Plug in a well-heeled ownership group and negotiate one of those mega-bucks TV deals that are going around, and the Dodgers could become the west coast version of the New York Yankees or Boston Red Sox.
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