Yeah, I know: the Tigers last year soiled the bed in September, losing a big lead and the division to the Twins, then recovered in October and got to the World Series. There, they lost to the Cardinals, a team that won the worst division in baseball with a record barely above .500. So stinking in September or even all year doesn’t mean a team can’t win it all.

But the Mets have been exposed in the second half as a team with shaky starting pitching, an incredible collapsing bullpen, and an offense that’s been shattered by the pitching staff’s inability to hang on to any lead, no matter how large.

They’ve got Pedro, who is as smart and resourceful a pitcher as there is.

But Tom Glavine is old and vulnerable, and their only other reliable starter, El Duque Hernandez, has a bum ankle. None of them are likely to get past seven innings, and once they leave, there’s that abysmal bullpen, led by closer Billy Wagner, who’s nothing more than a left-handed Armando Benitez.

Before Thursday, they had given up 32 runs in three games to the Nationals and 89 runs in their last 11.

"Seems to me we're all waiting to lose," Paul Lo Duca had said after Wednesday’s loss. "Better change quick or in five days we're all going to be home for the winter."

A day later, nothing had changed; the Mets were still waiting to lose that which they assumed was theirs since the spring.

It was supposed to be impossible for them to fall so far so quickly. What they have done is the baseball equivalent of traveling faster than the speed of light — it’s theoretically impossible.

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As depressing as that is to their fans, it’s a testament to baseball’s ability to continually surprise us. And it’s yet one more reason why teams and players keep mouthing those platitudes about not giving up, even when all looks lost.

The Phillies didn’t have the sense to listen to all of us expert analysts telling them they had no chance. They just kept playing and chipping away at the Mets’ lead. And now, with three to play, they’re in position to win the division and put themselves and the Mets in the record books — one for the greatest collapse ever and the other for the greatest comeback.

If the Phillies win, a lot of people will expect them to be dangerous in the playoffs. If the Mets somehow win, no one’s going to project them going to the World Series, or even the second round. They’ve already shown what they have in the guts department, and it’s not much.