Tony DeMarco

How did we get here, anyway? With a long weekend left in the regular season, there still isn’t a certain National League playoff qualifier.

All four races are still to be decided, no team can win more than 92 games, and up to three of the four playoff qualifiers will win 90 or fewer. What the NL may lack in quality, it has made up for in the nail-biting factor, with races that can go any which way — and just maybe to an extra day for a tie-breaker game.

Who’s getting in, and who isn’t? And is there another 2006 Cardinal-like October performance lurking from among the seven NL teams still breathing? In order of the likelihood of advancing to the World Series, here’s a rundown:

Arizona: All you need to know about the NL this season is that the Diamondbacks have the best record — the same Diamondbacks who have been outscored. Yes, they are 20 games over .500 through Friday, despite being outscored by a 717-708 margin on the season.

That means a lot of one-run victories (a major league-best 32), countless clutch hits, and maybe a few blowouts that went the wrong way. They are 28^th in the majors and 15^th in the NL in batting average, 14^th in the league in runs scored, but no matter. They are without All-Star Orlando Hudson, and play four first-year position players on a regular basis, but no matter.

That’s because they have a Cy Young Award candidate in Brandon Webb, and a very effective bullpen, and went 50-31 at Chase Field. And sometimes, it’s just as important to be as lucky as you are good. Things have fallen the D-Backs’ way all season, why not for one more month?

Chicago: Make no mistake, the Cubs winning the NL Central is just as much a case of the Brewers losing it. Let’s look at the numbers:

The Brewers could have run away and hid after a 24-10 start while the Cubs and Cardinals were floundering below .500. But they didn’t. As recently as July 19^th, the Brewers were 54-41 and held a 3½-game lead over the Cubs.

Since then, Milwaukee is a terrible 27-37, while the Cubs have barely stayed above .500 at 34-31 — not exactly a rousing come-from-behind story that gives them momentum heading into October. Especially not when they lost twice in Florida this week when they could have put the Brewers away.

But the Cubs do have star power in Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Zambrano, another quality starter in Ted Lilly, a dynamic setup man in Carlos Marmol, and a manager capable of defusing the franchise’s mental demons.

San Diego: The Padres were rolling toward a playoff spot until last weekend, when the Rockies swept them out of Petco Park, with MiltonGate adding injury to insult. To add to Bud Black’s problems, Greg Maddux has back issues, Chris Young is taking his turn, but isn’t the same guy he was in the first half, and Mike Cameron is out for the rest of the year with a thumb injury.

But with one swing of Brian Giles’ bat on Tuesday night in San Francisco, the Padres found hope. Giles’ dramatic three-run homer broke a four-game losing streak, and they pounded the Giants on Wednesday in Barry Bonds’ AT&T Park farewell to build momentum. Now they face the fading Brewers over the final two days of the season at Miller Park, needing only a win — or losses by the Mets and Rockies, to clinch the wild card spot.

If they can pull it off by Saturday, the Padres won’t need Cy Young Award favorite Jake Peavy to come back on three days rest to pitch the season finale on Sunday — meaning he could start two games in the division series.

Philadelphia: Charlie Manuel has gone from potentially fired to feted as the Phillies have made a long run to pass the stumbling Mets. In truth, his team hasn’t changed much. On Sept. 1, the Phils had a .533 winning percentage at 72-63. Going 15-9 since then, that percentage has climbed slightly to .547.

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Truth is, the Phils are an imbalanced and flawed squad, their offense forced to carry a heavy load due to a fractured rotation that has lost three projected starters to injury and another to the bullpen. If it wasn’t for rookie Kyle Kendrick and ageless Jamie Moyer, who knows what shape an already-worn-out bullpen would be in.

If pitching wins in the postseason, you can’t like the Phils’ chances much. But what an offense it is — three MVP candidates, and two other bashers who have combined for 55 homers and 183 RBI.

New York: Two weeks ago, all seemed well in Metsland. They had a seven-game division lead, Pedro Martinez had returned with a couple of solid performances, Moises Alou started a tear that still continues, and thoughts were turning to postseason planning.

But then the bullpen imploded, starting pitchers stopped going deep into games, collars tightened, and all of a sudden, people started thinking maybe Jimmy Rollins was right after all in saying the Phillies were the team to beat in the NL East. A waiting-to-lose mentality has seeped in at Big Shea, and the Mets’ biggest opponent this weekend — when they will play the Marlins — may just be themselves.

However, we only have to look back to those 2006 Cardinals for a quick turnaround leading to glory. Exactly one year ago today, the Cardinals snapped a seven-game losing streak and stood at 81-76, 1½ games ahead of the streaking Houston Astros in the NL Central race.

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They would win the division and finish the regular season 83-78 — and less than one month later, they were crowned World Series champions. The talent is there in the Mets’ dugout for a similar ending. But after falling a game behind the Phillies on Friday, their fate is now out of their hands.

Colorado: Before Friday's loss to Arizona, NL contender was playing better than the Rockies. And if this surprises you, you’re not alone. Even they are a bit surprised. When Todd Helton hit a dramatic walk-off home run on Sept. 18^th to beat the Dodgers and keep the Rockies’ then-slim wild-card hopes alive, they stood 4½ games behind, needing to win close to every one of their final 11 games.

And that’s exactly what they did, pushing their winning streak to a franchise-record 11 straight before Friday's loss. The problem for Clint Hurdle’s team is getting in, as they face a one-game deficit in the wild card with only two days left.

All of this has occurred despite three starting pitchers and their regular center fielder out for the rest of the season. But this is a close-knit team that has grown up together, and plays for one another — and they’re not giving up.

They also have the league’s best fielding percentage and fewest errors, possess as deep a lineup as any NL team outside of Philadelphia, and Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales — two tremendous young talents — are producing under fire.

They are looking at a playoff rotation including Josh Fogg and the two rookies behind ace Jeff Francis, but no team would be hotter entering the postseason, and that makes them very dangerous.