Bud Collins

NEW YORK - The U.S. Open men’s final on Sunday between top-seeded Roger Federer and No. 3 Novak Djokovic is likely to be very entertaining. But I think Djokovic, in his first final at a major, will pull an upset, halting Federer from winning his fourth straight title here.

With a win in straight sets over hustling Spaniard David Ferrer in the semis, Djokovic, 20, became the youngest men’s finalist at Flushing Meadows since Pete Sampras won it in 1990 at age 19. Djokovic really has come into his own this season as he reached the semis at the French Open and Wimbledon. (He lost to Rafael Nadal in both matches.) Also the first Serbian male to play in the finals at a major, he is a colorful character who toppled the mighty Federer for the first time in five career matches in the finals on the hardcourts in Montreal in early August.

Federer advanced to the finals at a major for the 10th straight time after he prevailed in a stern three-set test against fourth-seeded Nikolay Davydenko. On Sunday, the 26-year-old Swiss star will attempt to tie Roy Emerson by winning the 12th major title of his legendary career.

Breaking down their games:

Serve: Djokovic has a quality serve, which reached 130 mph vs. Ferrer. And, of course, we all know that Federer has a very good serve, although Davydenko broke Federer’s serve three straight times in the third set (and five times overall) on Saturday. But I think Federer will have his serve back in gear for the final. The two are equal as far as first serves are concerned, but I give the edge to Federer in this category simply because he places his second serve so well.

Return game: I’ve been quite impressed with how Djokovic returns serve. But Federer gets the edge in this category because he seems to be able to hit a greater variety of shots, and is more skilled at being able to hit high-velocity serves — something he did quite well in his quarterfinal victory vs. Andy Roddick.

U.S. Open Collins: Federer silences all the doubters Federer routs Murray, wins 5th straight Open title Serena basks in hard-earned No. 1 spot again Austin: Serena proves she's amazing athlete Serena beats Jankovic for third U.S. Open title 'TODAY' show videos:   Serena  |     Federer Bryan brothers win men's doubles title Slide show: Past men's champions Slide show: Past women's champions

Forehand: Federer has long had a reputation for owning the best forehand in the men’s game. And it’s hard to argue after watching him rip 15 forehand winners vs. Davydenko. He has the edge here as he uses it to create passing shots, and he also has pinpoint accuracy while on the run. But there isn’t much not to like about Djokovic’s forehand: he hits it deep, has excellent control of it and is able to hit it cross court and down the line accurately.

Backhand: Djokovic is at least the equal to Federer’s here, and might even get a slight edge because he is able to generate great power on the shot. As for Federer, some consider the backhand to be one of his few weaknesses. Rafael Nadal prevailed at the French Open final in May by hitting consistently to Federer’s backhand. Davydenko used the same strategy — and it worked early in Saturday’s semifinal as the Russian jumped to an early lead.

Fitness: Federer is in better physical shape than the young Djokovic, who called for a trainer and complained of a headache during a second-set changeover in his victory over Ferrer. Afterwards, Djokovic admitted he worried during the match about his fitness level. But keep in mind that the young Serb has played a few marathon matches during the fortnight, including a five-setter vs. Radek Stepanek in Round 2.

Mental toughness: I give the nod to Federer simply because it requires significant mental toughness to win 11 career majors. But don’t underestimate the Serbian in this category. Remember, He grew up in a country when it was embroiled in civil war and persevered to pursue his passion for tennis. He deserves credit for that.

Slide show   The Week in Sports Pictures Manny messes up, the Tour takes off to Spain, Nomar returns and more. more photos

Intangibles: Federer is under tremendous pressure as he tries to capture his fourth straight U.S. Open title. The last guy to win four straight titles here was Bill Tilden, who won six in a row from 1920-25. But I’ll give Federer the edge here based on experience. Djokovic, on the other hand, is only 20. He admitted that nerves helped put him in a 4-1 first-set hole vs. Ferrer. That simply can’t happen against a great player like Federer.

Pick: I’m picking Djokovic despite the fact that Federer has the edge in virtually all of the aforementioned categories. I really feel Djokovic’s has the talent (especially his blazing first serve) to outlast Federder in a Sunday duel and was really impressed with the young Serb in breakthrough run in Montreal, where he also beat Nadal and Roddick in becoming the first man in 13 years to beat Nos. 1-3 in the rankings in a single tournament.

Don't miss this on MSNBC.com Pass it on: Sons of infertile men may be next The eight biggest Olympic marketing debacles Reality show judges range from wise to wacko Cosmic Log: Is this your jetpack? Forget your inhibitions: World's sexiest islands

MORE FROM TENNIS

Tennis Section Front

Navratilova: Williamses must hurry Gasquet cleared to resume playing tennis   Video: Fernandez encouraged by U.S. women   Video: Ump says Federer-Roddick magnificent Simon, Kohlschreiber upset at Mercedes Cup Benesova advances to quarterfinals of Prague Open Verdasco reaches quarterfinals Pennetta, Rezai, Garbin into Palermo quarters Interactive: Building the perfect tennis player ATP, WTA scores, schedules Tennis Section Front   Add Tennis headlines to your news reader: