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There are other reasons to feel good about September at Wrigley. Rich Hill has emerged as a No. 2-quality starter (although Ted Lilly still follows Zambrano in the rotation); outfielder Jacque Jones, maligned by many Cubs fans for perceived failings since he signed as a free agent in 2006, hit .349 in August; and setup men Bob Howry and Carlos Marmol have been dominant lately. But questions about this team will ensure that the next few weeks remain interesting in the Central, starting with Zambrano. On the night last week that Sheets returned from the D.L. and sparked a 6-1 Brewers win, Zambrano lost his fourth straight game (a stretch in which his ERA was 8.14).
Most disturbing, though, is the lack of power on a team that features Soriano, Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez. Entering September, the Cubs had hit 106 home runs and had given up 142. That would make the team an oddity should it win the Central. Since division play began in 1969, only two division winners (the 2006 Twins and the 1973 Mets) have had bigger deficits between home runs hit and home runs allowed. "It's just one of those things," says Lee, who is hitting .312 but has just 17 homers. "You take what they give you. I am hitting the ball, just not out of the park."
It makes sense that the Central champion will be some sort of statistical anomaly. The Brewers could win the thing despite a 9-18 August, despite leading the majors in games lost (14) after holding a lead of three or more runs and despite the fact their offense has been carried by rookie third baseman Ryan Braun. His 15 second-half home runs are one shy of the combined postbreak total of All-Stars Prince Fielder and J.J. Hardy. The Cardinals, too, have a chance, though they have been so beset by injuries that manager Tony La Russa trotted out 119 different lineups in 132 games.
These are uncomfortable but unavoidable facts. But there's this fact, too: In the past three World Series, the NL has been represented by a Central team, including last year's 83-win champion Cardinals. Whichever team can put aside its tears and blisters to surge ahead in September could have a big impact in October. "Look at what the Cardinals did last year," Piniella says.
All three have major incentive. The Brewers can reach the playoffs for the first time since 1982 if they halt their collapse. Relying on their best-in-the-NL home record should help, considering the Brewers will close the year with seven home games, while the Cubs (who don't play the Brewers again) will finish with six on the road and the Cardinals will have played 35 games in the final 34 days. "Every series is big now," Milwaukee manager Ned Yost says. "It's going to come down to a good month for us. A good month for St. Louis, a good month for Chicago. You've got a month to go finish things."
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