Johnny Benson

There have been 11 different winners in the 14 Nextel Cup events at California Speedway, site of this Sunday's night's Nextel Cup race.

I don't see the number climbing to 12 as my pick to get to Victory Lane is Matt Kenseth, who won at the two-mile oval in February in the second event on this year's Cup schedule.

Working in Kenseth's favor
Kenseth has two Cup wins at California, his first coming in February of 2006. In 11 Cup races at California, Kenseth's average finish is 10.6. He has four top-fives and seven top-10s at this layout and also three Busch Series wins.

Kenseth is so comfortable and so formidable at California that when he won last February he did so without his crew chief Robbie Reiser, who had been suspended for four races and fined $50,000 for violations discovered during qualifying inspections prior to the Daytona 500. Additionally, Kenseth was docked 50 points.

The former Cup champion always looks forward to racing at California. He's usually been pretty strong on this type of track, and he feels it's a venue he can run well at -- whether that's in February or September, and whether it's in a Cup Series race of a Busch Series event. 

Reiser is staying with what works so well for his driver at California. On Sunday night Kenseth will be in the same car that he won with at this two-mile oval earlier this year. Driver and crew chief just hope the chassis will prove good enough to compete for the win this time around.

This holiday weekend Kenseth will be looking to build upon a strong season and increase his momentum heading into the Chase for the Nextel Cup, which begins on Sept. 16 at New Hampshire International Speedway.

By just starting last weekend's race at Bristol (Tenn.) Motor Speedway, the Roush Racing driver clinched a spot in the 10-race playoff, becoming the first driver to make all four Chases.

Other drivers to watch
I expect Kahne's toughest competition to come from Tony Stewart, Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, and Kyle Busch.

Stewart, who's had engine woes in the past at this track, was eighth here last February. He has never won at California despite some impressive runs. In 12 Cup events at this oval, the two-time series champion has six top-10s, and three top-fives.

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Stewart will be in the same chassis that won three of the last eight races last season. That could very well mean he could score his first win at California, one of only four tracks on the Cup circuit where he has not been to Victory Lane.

Johnson, third at California in the second race of the season, runs so consistently well that it's hard not to mention him as a top contender in any race. He's definitely that at California where he won this race in 2002. I see at least a top-five result if not a win for Johnson.

Kyle Busch followed up his win at California on Sept. 4, 2005 with finishes of 10th and eighth last year and ninth earlier this year at this venue. Kyle is leaving Hendrick Motorsports at the end of the season, and he'll compete next year for Joe Gibbs Racing, but the impending move has not adversely affected his racing.

Jeff Gordon's already qualified for the Chase so he'll be looking to pick up where he left off at California. Last February Gordon earned his first pole of the year at California. He went on to cross the checkers second in that race. That was just the beginning of a hot start to 2007 for  the four-time Cup champion, who followed up being runner-up at California by posting three wins and nine top-five finishes in the next 10 races to take a commanding lead in the point standings.

It's looking bleak for Dale Earnhardt Jr. to make the Chase. There's a gap of 158 points between Junior and Kurt Busch, who is in 12th place, the final spot for qualifying for the playoff. At times Junior is fast on intermediate tracks like California, and at other times he struggles a bit.

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