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Federer aims at a lofty goal

Swiss star can be first man in over 80 years to win four straight U.S. Opens

Image: Roger Federer Getty Images
Roger Federer has lost none of his invincibility as he is the overwhelming favorite to win the U.S. Open for a fourth consecutive year, writes Bud Collins of MSNBC.com.

A lot at stake for Blake
Federer more-than-likely awaits Blake if the American makes it to the semifinals. Blake's summer on the hardcourts has produced a winning record, but among his loses are ones that raise questions over how long he'll be able to stay around in Flushing. In the final at Los Angeles Blake lost in three sets to Radek Stepanek, ranked No. 101. At Indianapolis it was a loss to fellow American Sam Querrey, he of the No. 90 ranking at the time.  

Blake's gotten to the quarterfinals of the U.S. Open the past two years, but he has yet to win a five-set match in his career. That's something he may have to change with the possible hurdles of Tommy Haas, Marcos Baghdatis, and Nikolay Davydenko presenting themselves before Blake can take a crack at Federer in the semifinals.

There's no question Blake is a very good player, but maybe he’s not a champion. That's what I’m starting to feel. Blake's come close to winning in a lot of important matches, but he doesn’t seem to get the job done. It raises the question of whether he will be able to remain a solid top-10 player. He still has time to prove that he is, but there are many young and extremely talented players making their way up the pro ladder, and they will only make it tougher on Blake to remain one of the top players on tour.

A tough top half of the draw
Federer, Roddick, and Blake are in an overloaded top half of the draw with more than a few dangerous players lurking. The list includes the stylish Richard Gasquet (Wimbledon ambusher of Roddick), Tomas Berdych (still cherishing his Olympic win over Federer), Willie Canas (with his two hardcourt wins over Federer this year), 2003 runner-up Juan Carlos Ferrero, Baghdatis, and Haas.

Three troublemakers loom in the huge-serving persons longer-armed-than-most: the Leaning Tower of Zagreb, 6-foot-10 Ivo Karlovic, and two promising young Americans, 6-foot-9 John Isner and the 6-foot-6 Querrey. Wild card Isner phenomenally went all the way to the Washington final by blasting 144 aces and winning five straight third-set tie-breakers before Roddick cooled him down. Donald Young, the overpublicized and underachieving American junior, may be settling down, and has a shot against Aussie Chris Guccione.

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The bottom-half-of-the-draw feeders aren't as impressive, but 16th-seeded Lleyton Hewitt, the 2001 U.S. champion, seems to be pulling himself together, and looks a likely quarterfinalist against Djokovic.

I've always liked the smooth game of Mikhail Youzhny, who dumped Nadal last year. Fernando Gonzalez, Australian Open finalist along with Federer, also winner there over Nadal, is having problems, but should be watched. So should 2000 champ Marat Safin -- the delightful moaner capable of anything good or bad. Tommy Robredo is down there, too, with David Ferrer and Dmitri Tursunov, guys who can make messes of favorites -- not to overlook David Nalbandian, the last guy to mug Federer in New York, in the 2003 quarterfinals.

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