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Denny Hamlin qualified for the Chase off his fifth place finish at Michigan last Tuesday. In the March race at Bristol, the Joe Gibbs Racing driver led 177 laps and looked to have the car to beat. But a late caution cost him the lead and on the ensuing restart, Hamlin's No. 11 Chevrolet had a fuel pick-up problem, which led to a disappointing 14th-place finish.

My darkhorse is Jamie McMurray, who has one top-five and four top-10s in nine Bristol Cup starts.

Keys to success at Bristol
Bristol's changes following the March race draw high praise from me. I ran and won the Craftsman Truck Series race there last Wednesday night. The new concrete is unbelievable and way, way cool. It's just a pleasure to race on. It's smoother, three feet wider, and the move to variable banking eases the transitions all around the track.

Bristol is still a track where a driver cannot try and force the issue. If he does, most often the result will be a wreck. Qualifying up front and staying up front during the race is the best way to avoid wrecking, but with so many cars fighting for position on so small a track, it’s easy to get caught up in someone else’s crash.

The racing is intense and there will be plenty of bumping and banging. So luck is a bigger factor at Bristol than at many of the other tracks on the Nextel Cup circuit. You have to be lucky if you are going to keep from getting caught up in a wreck.

The right combination of shocks and springs is crucial as are top-notch, error-free pit stops. On green-flag pit stops a key is to remember that based on where a driver is on the track -- front stretch or back stretch -- he will have to enter the pits either off Turn 2 or Turn 4. It's a costly mistake to enter from the wrong turn as Jeff Gordon has twice done at Bristol.

The winner at Bristol will be the driver who had the right amount of patience, aggressiveness and luck.