Jimmie Johnson was 13th in this event a year ago. His Michigan resume reads one pole, one top-five, and four top-10s in 11 starts. The defending Cup champion has marked this two-mile oval as one of the tracks he wants to improve and he likes that it's a venue with several grooves and good side-by-side racing.

There's good reason to follow Matt Kenseth closely over the course of the 200 laps on Sunday. His average finish at Michigan, 10.1, is third best all-time among drivers with two or more starts at Michigan.

Another Richard Childress Racing driver, Clint Bowyer, who is in only his second full season of Cup racing is my darkhorse. In this event a year ago Bowyer was third with three laps to go when his engine blew.

Keys to success at Michigan
To run this track and to run it well a driver needs a lot of experience. That experience translates to the ability to find more grip -- if needed -- on this very wide track. This is a track where drivers can run two and even three distinct grooves. With the multiple grooves there is a lot of room for drivers to move around and make some exciting passes.

If a driver can't get his car to grip on the bottom of the track, he can try to run in the middle or run high. And drivers like Kasey Kahne, who have reputations for going to the top of tracks, will likely look to run up high at Michigan. But the real key is which drivers will have the cars that run well at the bottom of the track for the majority of the race because those cars will be the ones to beat.

With a wide track offering a lot of room to run and to pass, races at Michigan are usually pretty clean. Managing fuel is always a major challenge, and engine tuning is the most critical factor in getting maximum fuel mileage. Drivers have to be extremely conscious that races at Michigan have most often been decided by fuel mileage so they have to be very careful of how they run the throttle. Crew chiefs will be under greater pressure to make the right calls with fuel mileage such a key factor.

Finally, there's a long pit road at Michigan so I expect some drivers will be penalized for speeding, especially under green-flag pit stops.

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