Before you get too excited about your own team that’s climbed back into a race, though, there’s another trend that’s been fairly steady over the past several years. That is that no matter how tight the races get, the teams that have playoff spots at this stage of the season usually keep them. For that matter, of the six teams that led their divisions on June 1, five still either still have the lead, or in Cleveland’s case, share it.

Last year, at least 17 teams were still in contention on Aug. 13. But by season’s end, four of the six division leaders still held their leads and every one of them made the playoffs. Only Detroit fell out of first place, finishing a game behind the Twins in the AL Central. But the Tigers got to the World Series as the AL wild card. In the National League, the Dodgers ended up tied with San Diego for first place at the end of the year and wound up with the wild card based on head-to-head records.

The same thing happened in 2005 — five of six division leaders on Aug. 13 ended the season that way, with only the Yankees trading positions with the Red Sox. Boston, like Detroit last year, still made the playoffs.

In 2004, it was more of the same. On Aug. 13, the division leaders were the Yankees, Twins, A’s, Braves, Cards and Dodgers, which is exactly how the standings stood when the season ended. That year, 13 teams were within 6 1/2 games of a division lead and another — the San Francisco Giants — was 7 1/2 out. A 15th team, the Red Sox, were more than 10 games behind the Yankees, but Boston overtook the Los Angeles Angels down the stretch to snare the wild card — and the World Series.

Slide show   Week in Sports Pictures Pain on the skating rink, flying high on the hardwood, upsets on the football field, and more. more photos

So go ahead and get your hopes up, but just remember that history says no matter how close first place looks in mid-August, the chances of getting there aren’t great. And if your team is in first place, you’ve got good reason to feel smug because the team that’s in first now is going to have to do something extraordinary to miss the playoffs altogether.

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