Sam Smith

Well, I'd say the San Antonio Spurs aren't sweating quite yet. And probably neither are the Phoenix Suns, Dallas Mavericks, Utah Jazz and Houston Rockets. It's not going to be easy for the Portland Trail Blazers to even make the playoffs in the Western Conference next season.

Golden State made its case in last season's playoffs, the Nuggets get Allen Iverson for a full season, the Lakers figure to still have something going (remember, they were around the West's top four into January before being devastated by injuries), and Kobe Bryant is still the best individual player in the NBA. And it was the New Orleans Hornets with Chris Paul, David West and Tyson Chandler who were the young team to watch out for. And in this permutation, they don't even get into the top eight in the West.

So don't get ripped off in that city buying your Trail Blazers championship locker room t-shirts and hats quite yet.

But the Blazers are the team I'd like to see next season.

They may not be championship contenders, but they may have the most intriguing nucleus after another terrific offseason, this being their fourth straight with nothing to do after mid-April. And perhaps there'll be another one or two. But it seems there are some interesting times ahead for the Trail Blazers, though not necessarily because of Greg Oden.

Oden, of course, was the No. 1 pick in June's draft, projected — or promised — as the Next Great Thing for the NBA, a classic low post big man.

In size, anyway.

The lousy cliché in sports involves the size of a player's heart, and while it is way too early to judge how Oden will compete, it does raise questions that he wasn't the dominant offensive big man in college, though it was just one season at Ohio State. And yes he had that wrist injury. But rarely has there been a future great big man who didn't dominate basically every game he played in. Yes, Oden had tonsillitis in the summer league last month, but again he was just a good player, though foul prone. No one — repeat, no one — is saying he's not going to be a terrific NBA player, and it appears an even better person. He's what the NBA needs now more than ever.

But Oden is not Kareem or Wilt or Russell or Olajuwon.

It seems clear he's going to have to learn how to compete harder.

Which hardly takes away from what Portland is building.

Though it seemed a one-sided deal, I loved the move to unload Zach Randolph. Sure, they had to take on Steve Francis and eat his salary. But they got a nice complementary piece in Channing Frye, who should play off Oden well. And it was a terrific addition by subtraction. Randolph could be good in New York. Perhaps he's learned his associations have left him guilty.

Kathy Willens / AP Greg Oden is not likely to be the next Kareem or Wilt or Russell, writes Sam Smith.

But he was hardly the leader to the young kids in Portland and would take too many minutes away from LaMarcus Aldridge.

Addition by subtraction was the phrase that began the building around Michael Jordan with the Bulls.

The Bulls had better talent when Jordan came than a few years after he arrived. But players like Orlando Woolridge, Quentin Dailey, George Gervin and Gene Banks had to go for Jordan to develop his potential. Likewise with the Portland front line. Though they had an impressive finish last season, they're starting again with Oden and Aldridge, the latter who sat out the last part of the season.

So it's going to be a slow process. Oden is going to be humbled early and Aldridge will struggle to play off him. Joel Przybilla probably will be injured.

They also don't seem to be settled yet for the future at point guard.

Brandon Roy did a lot of the playmaking last season, and that's not his future. Steve Blake is a settling veteran, but gives you diminishing returns when he plays too much. Sergio Rodriguez is flashy and Jarrett Jack is learning. They're young and will grow out of it. But it still could be an issue finding anyone who can get the ball to Oden, who seems to need deep position to have any success on offense.

Slide show   The Week in Sports Pictures Manny messes up, the Tour takes off to Spain, Nomar returns and more. more photos

James Jones will make some shots, but they still need more perimeter shooting to get the defense off Oden. There's rookie Josh McRoberts, but who knows about him? If he skipped college and went to the NBA, he'd probably have been a lottery pick. He went in the second round and has to prove he's not lazy. Twenty-year-old Martell Webster is a veteran, and we'll see whether that was a mistake pick at No. 6.

But this Trail Blazers incarnation has done well with the draft.

Injuries hang over the franchise again, like when Bill Walton was the No. 1 overall pick in 1974 as the next great center. He missed large parts of his first two seasons with foot problems, won a championship, and soon was gone for good with more injuries. Aldridge already is having various issues and could prove fragile. Oden had injury problems since he left high school. Roy, too, missed a large part of his rookie season with foot problems. So this is no sure thing. And could go bad.

But perhaps more than any team this season, especially early, I'll want to watch the Blazers. And when was the last time anyone said that?

MORE FROM NBA

NBA Section Front

Boozer expects Jazz to trade him soon Ex-NBA star Walker faces Vegas casino debt Report: Iverson in 'serious' talks with Clips   Less than half of league’s teams turned profit Suns want to see healthy Stoudemire Winderman: Best even better after free agency   Slideshow: Wheeling, dealing of free agency Rumors: Magic to dump Redick? Latest player news, rumors and more Latest NBA videos NBA Section Front   Add NBA headlines to your news reader: