4. JOHAN SANTANA, Minnesota
Age: 28
Age at first win: 21
Career record (as of July 30): 89-39
Average wins per full season (through 2006): 16.8
Estimated season he will reach 300: 2020
Estimated age at win No. 300: 41
Injury history: Had surgery before 2004 season to remove bone chips in his left (throwing) elbow. But no sign of any long-term arm damage, so say two Cy Young Awards (2004 and 2006).

Case for reaching 300: Santana is the most consistently dominant pitcher in the major leagues today, especially once the All-Star break is over. He’s not undefeated from July to September for his career — it just seems like it. Might get a chance to get even more wins when good, cash-rich team signs him after his Minnesota contract expires at the end of next season.

Case against reaching 300: Santana got a late start toward 300 because he spent his first four major-league seasons mostly in the bullpen — he’s in only his fourth season as a full-time starter. But with those Cy Youngs in his pocket, Santana could get to, say, 250 wins and still make the Hall of Fame. Dennis Martinez (245) is the current record holder for wins by a Latin-born pitcher.

5. CARLOS ZAMBRANO, Chicago Cubs
Age: 26
Age at first win: 20
Career record (as of July 30): 78-49
Average wins per full season (through 2006): 15.2
Estimated season he will reach 300: 2022
Estimated age at No. 300: 41
Injury history: Some strain in his right (throwing) elbow, which got the Cubs to restrict Zambrano’s Internet use after he claimed the repetitive stress of e-mailing his brother caused his problems in 2005. If you want to call whatever you do at the computer “e-mailing your brother” — hey, to each his own euphemism.

Case for reaching 300: While all the attention was focused on whether the constantly on-the-shelf Kerry Wood or Mark Prior would ever come back, Zambrano emerged as the Cubs’ most consistent starter and staff ace. He might have won the Cy Young Award last year if his last-place team hadn’t been so lousy. His career ERA of 3.31 — it’s ranged between
2.75 and 3.66 — shows he’s not counting on his teammates to hit him out of his jams. Then again, Zambrano went 3-for-4 the other day against Cincinnati and is one of the best hitting pitchers in baseball, so he’s more than capable of hitting himself out of his own jams.

Case against reaching 300: He’s a Cub. Something tragic will happen the moment all looks sunny, right? Then again, with his contract situation, he could be a Met or something else starting next year.

And the special, bonus spot starter…

6. JON GARLAND, Chicago White Sox
Age: 27
Age at first win: 20
Career record (as of July 30): 90-75
Average wins per full season (through 2006): 14.4
Estimated season he will reach 300: 2020
Estimated age at No. 300: 40
Injury history: Nil.

Case for reaching 300: Jon Garland, a 300-game winner? Jon Garland, a one-time All-Star, a 300-game winner? Yes, it can happen. He has had two 18-win seasons in a row, and he conceivably could have a third if the White Sox’s terrible bullpen wasn’t so intent on giving up games. Garland’s career ERA is a robust 4.41, but it’s been going down after a few rough early years. Garland could be the slow-and-steady 15-game winner who reaches 300, the Craig Biggio of pitching.

Case against reaching 300: That career ERA might be dropping, but he still has recorded only one sub-4.00 ERA season in five full seasons as a starter. Unlike the other starters on this list, Garland seems like a career No. 2 or so guy, not an ace.

But then again, wasn’t Tom Glavine usually overshadowed by Greg Maddux? You don’t have to be great to win 300 games. Just good enough, for long enough.

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