Bob Cook

With his 300th win on Sunday against the Cubs, Mets pitcher Tom Glavine becomes the ninth pitcher in the last 25 years to reach that milestone. He also ends an unprecedented era in 300-windom. This golden age of 300-game winners beats the era of 1888-1913, when eight pitchers reached that milestone, and when Gaylord Perry started his career, thus allowing him to grandfather in his spitball so he could kick off the current run of 300-game winners in 1982.

Glavine is the 23rd pitcher to reach 300, and there’s not much hope of a 24th coming anytime soon, unless Randy Johnson (284 wins) makes a remarkable comeback from back surgery next season at age 44, or Mike Mussina (244 wins) at age 38 overcomes his recent struggles and finds a way to kick in a late-late-career, Phil Niekro-style surge. Any other pitcher with more than 200 wins is in his 40s or is Pedro Martinez, whose current arm problems make him no sure shot to get to 300, even with 206 wins at the relatively tender age of 35.

But even though it might be a while before anyone else reaches 300, several pitchers right now are capable of making it in another, say, 15 or so years.

Winning 300 games is not about greatness (as Don Sutton’s detractors will tell you), but about being consistently good, and consistently healthy. As Woody Allen might put it, 95 percent of having a run at 300 wins is showing up. You have to start young, and pitch when you're old.
Reaching 40 is almost a requirement for a 300-game winner. Since 1915, around the time pitchers stopped making about 50 or so starts a year, the only players to reach 300 before their 40th birthday were Grover Cleveland Alexander (37), Steve Carlton (38), Greg Maddux (38) and Eddie Plank (39).

Today’s five-starter, no-complete-game strategy might seem on the surface to limit pitchers, who aren’t racking up 25-win seasons like they used to. But then again, that same strategy also might lessen the chance some of the pitchers named below will blow themselves out before age 40, as happened to great pitchers, and sub-300-game-winners, such as Bob Gibson and Jim Palmer. If you have arm problems, it’s tough to make it to 300: ask Tommy John (288 wins), sitting outside the Hall of Fame and more famous for being a surgery.

Special feature

In honor of today’s starting rotation, here are the five pitchers with the best chances of making 300 wins. Actually, six — I’ll throw in a spot starter because in calculating who had the best chance, one name came up that made me rub my eyes in disbelief. Maybe he’ll be remembered as the Don Sutton of his generation.

1. ROY OSWALT, Houston
Age: 29 (30 as of Aug. 29)
Age at first win: 23
Career record (as of July 30): 108-53
Average wins per full season (through 2006): 16.3
Estimated season he will reach 300: 2018
Estimated age at win No. 300: 41
Injury history: On the disabled list in 2003 with a groin injury. But no arm problems

Case for reaching 300: Unrelenting consistency and greatness. He has two 20-win seasons in an era where it’s tough to get one. (And with 19 wins in 2002, he nearly has three such seasons.)

Case against reaching 300: The current state of the Astros, which is acting as an anchor in his numbers (though most pitchers would kill to have a career-high ERA of 3.63, Oswalt’s present predicament). Houston finished first or second in its division in Oswalt’s first six seasons, but won’t in this one. Being stuck on a losing team for a while can be a drag on 300, and the difference between Hall of Fame induction and Bert Blyleven-land (287 wins).

2. MARK BUEHRLE, Chicago White Sox
Age: 28
Age at first win: 21
Career record (as of July 30): 105-72
Average wins per full season (through 2006): 15.5
Estimated season he will reach 300: 2019
Estimated age at win No. 300: 40
Injury history: Practically nil.

Case for reaching 300: Buehrle has never pitched fewer than 204 innings in a season, nor more than 245, and presumably his one big risk of hurting himself was taken care of when the White Sox brass banned him from sliding on the tarp during rain delays.

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Case against reaching 300: Current state of the White Sox, who like their 2005 World Series foe, Houston, have seen the bottom drop out in a hurry. But individually, Buehrle, who relies on finesse more than power, can’t go through many more seasons like last year, when his breaking pitches didn’t break, and he ended up a career-worst 12-13 with a 4.99 ERA.

3. C.C. SABATHIA, Cleveland
Age: 27
Age at first win: 20
Career record (as of July 30): 94-62
Average wins per full season (through 2006): 13.5
Estimated season he will reach 300: 2021
Estimated age at win No. 300: 41
Injury history: Muscle pulls, which put him on the disabled list in 2006.

Case for reaching 300: Sabathia, tied for the AL league in wins at 13, is picking up his game to a pace that might allow him to reach the magic milestone sooner than his previous seasons’ play might predict. After five so-so years, he is again fulfilling the promise he showed while going 17-5 as a rookie in 2001. That could make him the first black pitcher ever to reach 300 — Ferguson Jenkins is first at 284, though among African-Americans — not African-Canadians — Bob Gibson is first at 251.

Case against reaching 300: Those five so-so years. His career ERA is 3.91, and has been higher than 4.00 in four out of his first six seasons, including his rookie year. Sabathia needs more 17-5s and fewer 11-10s, or else he’ll be struggling like Mussina to reach 300 by the time he is 38.