Garrett Lai

There’s no denying it: the Tour is in peril. It couldn’t seem to get any worse than last year’s debacle with Floyd Landis’s yet-to-be-legally-decided positive doping test, but it has.

Current race leader Michael Rasmussen has been racing under a cloud of suspicion since last week, when Danish authorities revealed that he had failed to report for two out-of-competition doping tests, which was followed by reports that the former mountain bike world champion had been using a synthetic blood product in 2002.

And Tuesday, Alexandre Vinokourov and his Astana team withdrew from the Tour following an announcement that Vino tested positive for blood doping after his time trial victory on Saturday.

What this says about the sport, and about cycling’s suddenly bleak future, is a subject that’s bigger than this column. All I can comment about is how the Tour’s outcome, and team strategy, have suddenly changed overnight.

In all likelihood, the Tour’s winner will be all but decided on Wednesday’s stage, a hatefully difficult 218-kilometer climbing fest in the Pyrenees that’s the last mountain stage. Two hors categorie climbs bookend a category 3 summit and two cat 1 ascents that are sure to be hot, muggy and have most riders struggling to make the time cut. But for the contenders, it’s probably the last chance to bring down Rasmussen’s 2:23 lead over second-place Alberto Contador, who rides for Discovery Channel.

With Astana’s departure fifth-place Andreas Kloden is out of the picture, and that has to make strategy a lot clearer for Discovery’s strategist, director sportif Johan Bruyneel. Astana was arguably the strongest team there, and with them out of the game it simplifies the number of possible scenarios.

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Levi Leipheimer, Disco’s designated leader, is probably going to have to sacrifice his podium chances in order to get a teammate into the maillot jaune. He’s currently fifth, 5:25 behind, but Contador is clearly the stronger rider, having beaten Leipheimer in the time trial and snatching victory from Rasmussen on Sunday’s epic climbing stage.

Truthfully, I don’t think Levi was ever a contender for top slot — it’s not in his nature. He’s having the ride of his life — he’s been consistently strong, he’s been well-placed in the field and he’s done an exceptional job of marking the leaders and limiting his losses.

But that’s only half the battle. He hasn’t attacked with any real conviction, and while you run the risk of blowing when you charge up the road, you can’t create an advantage any other way. So while this might be personally disappointing to Levi, I doubt Bruyneel has any real reservations about scuttling Leipheimer’s chances at a win in order to move Contador up the ranks.

Contador also had the ride of his life, on Sunday. Rasmussen has been untouchable in the mountains for the last three years, and on the run up the Col de Peyresourde Contador attacked the Dane, alone. Rasmussen responded, Contador countered, and when Rasmussen caught on Contador attacked again! I couldn’t tell who had more in reserve, but it was pretty clear Rasmussen was struggling, wrestling his bicycle without any fluidity of movement. Contador won, by a whisker, but had there been more mountain ahead I have no doubt Contador would have continued to attack.

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