NBA

Some of Donaghy's games look fishy

But just looking at his ref stats doesn't prove he tried to fix outcomes

Haraz N. Ghanbari / AP

The FBI is investigating former NBA referee Tim Donaghy for betting on games, including ones in which he officiated.

They would have been able to see exactly if anything was up with Donaghy’s foul calling patterns long ago. We can only give you the average numbers he saw per game throughout the season, which is affected each night by the crew with which he works.

We do know Donaghy leads all NBA officials with an average of 56.9 free throws per game over the past two seasons in games in which he’s reffed. For all we know however, he just got stuck with different whistle-happy refs every night and he is unjustly slapped with this tag as a foul junkie.

That’s not the way it went, but only the NBA knows exactly how many fouls Donaghy called on a game-by-game basis.

It begs some key questions: If reports are true that Donaghy’s alleged game fixing incidents happened over the past two seasons, how did the NBA miss it? And how could they have let him continue officiating if other reports that claim federal authorities informed the NBA of the possible situation back in January are actually true?

Donaghy did five playoff games this year, which incidentally saw an over/under ratio of 4-1. I’m not sure how David Stern could ever step in front of the microphones Tuesday when he holds a press conference and say “We knew about this in January” and expect the NBA world to ever respect him again.

Then again, the NBA can’t possibly say there was absolutely nothing fishy about Donaghy either, or they’d have to own up to those inconsistencies to which I was referring and admit their entire reffing system needs an overhaul.

Here are the numbers and factors that are making me raise questions about Donaghy and you can make your own judgements:

The ‘over’ went 10-2 in his games this season in which the over/under was set at 184 ½ or lower. Only one official had a more distorted record in that situation, Mike Smith, who went 13-2. In theory, it would be easier to help a game with a total of 184 ½ go over than it would be to make a game with a total of 205 go over. The over was 7-11 in Donaghy’s games in which the total was 205 or higher.
After a Jan. 6 game between the Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz in which the pointspread moved 6 ½ points and the over/under moved 4 ½ points before game time, Donaghy didn’t ref another game for nine days until Jan. 15 when the Raptors played the Sixers on Jan. 15. That was the biggest line move Donaghy saw all season and the break afterwards was by far his longest layoff of the season. Coincidence? Melo, Marcus Camby, Kenyon Martin and J.R. Smith all sat out that game for the Nuggets, which explains the line move, but not Donaghy’s subsequent time off.
Over the past 10 seasons dating back to 97-98, Donaghy is a 52.3 percent ‘over’ official at 317-289. Last season the over was 43-29, a ratio of 59.7 percent. These numbers aren’t far off from 01-02 and 02-03, but in 03-04 and 04-05 he strangely became an ‘under’ official. In those last two seasons the over went 59-74 for a 45.7 percent over ratio.
On Feb. 26, 2007 Donaghy reffed a game between the New York Knicks and Miami Heat at MSG. The Knicks won and covered as 4-point favorites but they also held a free-throw advantage of 39-8. The Heat openly questioned the officiating after the game.
On Feb. 18, 2006 Donaghy called a mysterious three-second defensive violation on the Indiana Pacers with a little over a minute left in a game they were leading the San Antonio Spurs by five. Manu Ginobili then went and made the free-throw and then a three-pointer on the next possession to help the Spurs to a 92-88 win. The Pacers still covered the spread, but the 13 points scored in the final 1:28 allowed the game to go over by 5 ½ points.
In the last six games of Donaghy’s this past season that saw the over/under move by at least two points, the winning bet came in on the other side. In his last game of the season between Phoenix and San Antonio for instance, the line moved down from 202 ½ to 200 ½ but the over cashed in easily as the winner with 209 total points in the game.
The over is 26-8 over the past two seasons for Donaghy’s games in which the total was set between 195 and 204 1 ½.

Don't miss this on MSNBC.com

Pass it on: Sons of infertile men may be next
The eight biggest Olympic marketing debacles
Reality show judges range from wise to wacko
Cosmic Log: Is this your jetpack?
Forget your inhibitions: World's sexiest islands

< Prev | 1 | 2