Don Pierson

The Lions will either close their credibility gap this year or it will swallow them whole. Quarterback Jon Kitna and receiver Mike Furrey predict at least 10 wins. Since they won only three last year, tripling the output seems unrealistic, if not downright unbelievable.

Speaking of unbelievable, president Matt Millen's six-year record is 24-72. Yet he still has a job, which makes all of Detroit wonder whether the Ford Family is paying attention. Fans think the time is past when they should be able to believe. They just celebrated the 50th anniversary of their last world championship.

Coach Rod Marinelli seems like a believable sort. He spent his rookie season preaching character. Yet he clings to an underachieving player he thinks is indispensable, defensive tackle Shaun Rogers, who manages to play just hard enough on occasion to whet the appetites of dreamers.

So the 3-13 Lions are following 5-11 and 6-10 seasons with more than a few question marks attached to their jersey numbers.

They keep drafting wide receivers and after going one-for-three in top-10 picks, they were undeterred, choosing Georgia Tech's Calvin Johnson No. 1. Early reports make the Lions think they are now batting .500, with Roy Williams and Johnson offsetting failures Charles Rogers and Mike Williams.

Furrey's season was unbelievable. The former undrafted receiver and defensive back, a castoff from the St. Louis Rams, drew the attention of offensive coordinator Mike Martz, who turned him into the NFC's most prolific pass-catcher. With 98 catches from Furrey and 82 from Roy Williams, it's difficult to believe the Lions actually needed Johnson. But Martz convinced Millen and Marinelli that more is better. The Lions not only drafted Johnson, they signed another ex-Rams free agent, Shaun McDonald, and another receiver in Marcus Robinson. Training camp should help sort out the problem of playing with only one football.

The glut of receivers also makes fans wonder why they needed to trade for Denver running back Tatum Bell and add big T.J. Duckett. The Lions did finish last in rushing, but partly because they finished last in rushing attempts. They don't expect former No. 1 pick Kevin Jones to be healthy.

Tinkering with the offensive line is an annual affair and the addition of guard Edwin Mulitalo from Baltimore and George Foster from Denver are the latest maneuverings.

Marinelli loves Rogers because defensive tackle is the most important position in the "Tampa-2" system. But Cory Redding already has surpassed his former Texas teammate in productivity and reliability at the position, not to mention cost, so Rogers may be out.

Marinelli found a keeper in his first-round linebacker Ernie Sims last year. End Dwayne White was signed from Tampa to replace James Hall and cornerback Travis Fisher was signed from St. Louis to replace Dre' Bly and push Stanley Wilson and Fernando Bryant. If second-year safety Daniel Bullocks isn't ready to replace departed Terrence Holt, second-round draft choice Gerald Alexander will get a shot.

Hot seat
Marinelli espouses the philosophy of "pounding the rock," telling his players that the only important thing is the only thing they can control-their own daily effort and dedication to improvement. He likes to say that nobody knows when the rock will finally break and good things will pop out. Nobody knows how many times the rock needs to get pounded. But the only important thing is to keep pounding. Still, players are as human as fans, at least sometimes, and they need to see results. If this year's scoreboard doesn't indicate more tangible progress than the philosophical truth of pounding the rock, Marinelli's regime could get torpedoed by doubters before it has a chance to surface. He hired his son-in-law, Joe Barry, from Tampa to take over his defense, so there will be no chance of miscommunication.

Overheard
Quarterback Drew Stanton was the Lions' second draft pick behind Johnson and fans will be eager to see the Michigan State product get a chance if Kitna falters. Kitna will turn 35 in September and after a 4,208-yard season and taking every snap, he's in no rush to hand over the job. But he has to improve his 21-22 ratio of touchdown passes to interceptions in order to climb from a middle-of-the-pack starter to a player who can help the Lions win more than half their games. Fans won't allow Kitna much slack. Detroit has been waiting too long already to delay the inevitable.

Outlook
The Lions open at Oakland against the 2-14 Raiders. They have to win. They open at home the following week against the Vikings. They have to win that. If they can start out 2-0, they can gain some confidence in each other and in the coaches. If they start out 1-1, doubts will linger. If they start out 0-2, look out below again.

Prediction
Third.

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