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Wisconsin won't be a national title contender

Badgers not bad, but don't believe all the preseason hype

Capital One Bowl: Arkansas v WisconsinGetty Images file
Sophomore standout running back P.J. Hill, center, and the Wisconsin Badgers will be hard-pressed to match last season's impressive 12-1 finish, writes College Football Expert Joey Johnston.

Q: Kentucky is coming off an 8-win season capped with a spanking of Clemson in the Music City Bowl. They return every major offensive weapon and their best defensive player and have a good class (by UK standards) coming in. Yet, they seem to garner no respect when it comes to preseason rankings. Do the experts think last season was a fluke, or do they think the schedule will be too demanding to repeat last season's success?
— Rob L. from Louisville
A: Kentucky is definitely on the upswing, Rob, but the Wildcats still have a major geographic problem. Location, location, location. They compete in the SEC East. Even with gradual improvement in its program, Kentucky is still looking up at the division’s perennial Big Three of Florida, Georgia and Tennessee. And let’s not overlook Steve Spurrier’s South Carolina Gamecocks, who might be poised to make a move.

That being said, Kentucky certainly could have a repeat of last season’s success. The next logical step would be playing in a New Year’s Day bowl (say, Orlando or Tampa), but that’s a stretch. So another eight-win season should sit well with the Commonwealth faithful, who have endured far worse.

You’ve got to like Wildcats quarterback Andre Woodson (the SEC’s best? Maybe) and he has decent weapons with running back Rafael Little and wide receiver Keenan Burton. Kentucky’s biggest focus should be consistency on both sides of the line.

I’ve got Sept. 15 (Louisville at Kentucky) penciled in as a potential upset. But the real story of Kentucky’s season should be told in the final two weeks with a trip to Georgia and a home date with Tennessee. For Kentucky to truly make a quantum leap, it needs a split in that pivotal two-week stretch.  

Q: How do you think the Hoosiers will fare in 2007? Their offense has been steadily improving and they have a relatively easy conference schedule, but they also have been reeling from the death of Coach Terry Hoeppner. Do you see a bowl game this season, finally?
— Trevor from Bloomington, Ind.
A: Indiana will be on the verge of bowl qualification, Trevor, and that is a well-deserved distinction for a program that desperately needs some things to go right. Hoeppner, 9-14 in two seasons, was changing the culture and upgrading the talent pool. His death was tragic, and no doubt, his players will be inspired to honor the memory of their fallen leader as they play on for Bill Lynch, the offensive coordinator.

Emotion can only carry Indiana so far, though. The Hoosiers’ place in the Big Ten standings probably depends on the progress at Illinois (is Coach Ron Zook’s program ready to make a move?) and Michigan State (how will the Spartans perform under new coach Mark Dantonio?).

Let’s go ahead and say it right now: Indiana’s home date with Illinois on Sept. 22 is a must-win game. The Hoosiers would’ve made their first bowl appearance since 1993 had they defeated Purdue in the season finale, but the Boilermakers prevailed 28-19. So the Nov. 17 home game with Purdue also looms large.

Even though Indiana dodges Michigan and Ohio State in the Big Ten schedule, the Hoosiers should be skating somewhere around the 6-6 mark. Again, Illinois at Indiana could ultimately determine the Big Ten’s final bowl slot.

Joey Johnston writes regularly for MSNBC.com and is a columnist for the Tampa (Fla.) Tribune.


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